德国央行-德国当前的经济形势（英）-2024.2-7页_58kb

The global economy shows signs of easing, with the US Federal Reserve indicating potential interest rate cuts later in 2024, leading to euro strength against the dollar. However, robust US labor market data sustained confidence in its trajectory. The ECB maintained key interest rates unchanged at its December and January 2024 meetings, citing that current rates are supportive for inflation to return to the 2%, and announced an accelerated reduction of the PEPP portfolio reinvestment, aiming to end it by the end of 2024 to normalize monetary policy.

In the euro area, inflation is expected to gradually decline in 2024, reaching the 2% target by late 2025, influenced by lower energy prices and weakening demand. Markets anticipate earlier and larger interest rate cuts due to improving inflation expectations and subdued economic outlook, contributing to declining long-term rates and rising asset prices amid strong risk appetite.

For Germany, the fourth-quarter GDP contracted seasonally adjusted by 0.3%, marking a technical recession likely continuing into early 2024, driven by weak foreign demand, high funding costs, and ongoing uncertainties in climate policies. Lending to both non-financial corporations and households weakened, with banks tightening credit policies due to increased risk assessments. Unemployment slightly rose, but the labor market remains robust with stable job vacancies and wage negotiations showing a less sharp increase, though underlying earnings gains linger.

Disinflation continues in Germany, with the HICP falling from 5.7% to 3.0% year-on-year, largely due to declining food and industrial goods prices. Core inflation eased from 5.8% to 3.6%, though service sector pressures ease more slowly. Public finances improved in 2023 due to COVID-related costs ending, with the debt ratio still moderate at around 65%, but fiscal policy may ease in 2024 with large deficits expected mainly from defense and climate funds, though the German debt brake could allow borrowing under specific conditions to support stability-oriented reforms.