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China Battery Chartbook Summary - August 2025

Core Content Overview

This document provides an in-depth analysis of the China battery industry, focusing on the performance of key players, export trends, and the state of the supply chain. It also includes investment ratings, M&A rankings, and the methodology used for data collection and analysis.

Key Insights and Takeaways

CATL Performance (2Q25)

• Revenue: Rmb94bn, up 8% yoy (below GS expectations by 10%).
• Net Profit: Rmb16.5bn, up 34% yoy (6% above expectations).
• Battery Unit GP: Mixed, indicating potential headwinds in the domestic market and delayed inflection point.
• CAPEX Trends: Continued upward trend, expected to increase from ~13% of total CAPEX in 2024 to ~24% in 2025E, supporting market share gains.
• Solid-State Battery: Progressing well but still in early stages of commercialization.
• Investment Rating: Maintained Buy on CATL A-Shr, downgraded CATL H-Shr due to valuation concerns.

China Battery Export Trends (1H25)

• Total Export Volume:
  • June 2025: +74% yoy (incl. consumer batteries and ESS systems).
  • 1H2025: +73% yoy, with exports to the US, Europe, and RoW contributing 22%, 35%, and 42% respectively.
• US Market:
  • Export volume rebounded sharply in June 2025 (+80% MoM) following the reduction of the ~125% reciprocal tariff in April.
  • May 2025 saw a 46% MoM decline due to the tariff.
• Europe:
  • Recorded a 61% yoy volume growth in 1H2025, though MoM growth slowed after May.
• RoW:
  • Became the main growth driver, with estimated exports of 75 GWh in 1H2025 and 18 GWh in June 2025.
  • YoY growth: 102% in 1H2025, 114% in June 2025.
  • Key regions: Middle East (Saudi Arabia, UAE), Chile, and Australia.

Battery Supply Chain Components

Cathode

• LFP Cathode:
  • Export volume in June 2025: 2.03 kt (+1282% yoy).
• NCM Cathode (523):
  • Export volume in June 2025: 10.6 kt (+76% yoy).
• NCM Cathode (622):
  • Export volume in June 2025: 10.6 kt (+76% yoy).
• Price Trends:
  • LFP cathode prices declined in June 2025 (-26% yoy).
  • NCM cathode prices also saw a decline (-9% yoy).
  • NCM precursor prices declined (-57% yoy in May 2025).

Anode

• Artificial Graphite:
  • Export volume in June 2025: 51.2 kt.
  • YoY growth: 12%.
  • MoM decline: -2%.
• Natural Graphite:
  • Export volume in June 2025: 4.6 kt.
  • YoY growth: -33%.
  • MoM growth: +37%.
• Aquamiform Natural Graphite:
  • Export volume in June 2025: 5.3 kt.
  • YoY growth: -28%.
  • MoM growth: -39%.
• Natural Graphite (Powder and Flakes):
  • Export volume in June 2025: 1.2 kt.
  • YoY growth: -43%.
  • MoM growth: +15%.

Separator

• Wet-based 7μm:
  • Export volume in June 2025: 11.2 kt.
• Wet-based 9μm:
  • Export volume in June 2025: 10.1 kt.
• Dry-based 12μm:
  • Export volume in June 2025: 10.1 kt.
• Dry-based 14μm:
  • Export volume in June 2025: 9.1 kt.
• Price Trends:
  • Polypropylene separator prices rose sharply in June 2025 (+60% MoM).

Electrolyte

• LiPF6:
  • Export volume in June 2025: 1.4 kt.
  • YoY decline: -25%.
• Electrolyte Price:
  • LiPF6 prices declined in June 2025 (-25% yoy).
  • Electrolyte 3.2V price also declined (-26% yoy).
• Gross Profit Split:
  • Electrolyte gross profit split is included, though no specific figures are provided.

China Battery Supply Chain CAPEX Trends

• CAPEX:
  • Down 40% from peak.
  • Estimated annual capacity additions: 300G–400GWh.
• Investment Rating Summary:
  • Battery Makers:
    • CATL-A: Buy (Market Cap: USD 169,524M, GS TP: USD 328.0M, Upside: +25%).
    • CATL-H: Neutral (Market Cap: USD 169,524M, GS TP: USD 436.0M, Upside: +5%).
    • Gotion: Buy (Market Cap: USD 7,334M, GS TP: USD 28.8M, Upside: -1%).
    • EVE Energy: Neutral (Market Cap: USD 13,067M, GS TP: USD 45.8M, Upside: 0%).
    • CALB: Neutral (Market Cap: USD 4,534M, GS TP: USD 17.4M, Upside: -12%).
    • Farasis: Sell (Market Cap: USD 2,877M, GS TP: USD 7.0M, Upside: -59%).
  • Energy Storage System (ESS):
    • Hyperstrong: Buy (Market Cap: USD 2,334M, GS TP: USD 106.0M, Upside: +14%).
  • Battery Materials:
    • Hunan Yuneng: Buy (Market Cap: USD 3,692M, GS TP: USD 62.0M, Upside: +78%).
    • Senior Technology: Buy (Market Cap: USD 2,254M, GS TP: USD 12.4M, Upside: +3%).
    • Yunnan Energy: Buy (Market Cap: USD 4,218M, GS TP: USD 35.9M, Upside: +15%).
    • Putailai: Neutral (Market Cap: USD 5,350M, GS TP: USD 15.8M, Upside: -12%).
    • Dynanonic: Neutral (Market Cap: USD 1,413M, GS TP: USD 28.0M, Upside: -23%).
    • Tinci Material: Sell (Market Cap: USD 5,277M, GS TP: USD 13.4M, Upside: -32%).
    • Zhenhua: Sell (Market Cap: USD 1,093M, GS TP: USD 7.1M, Upside: -54%).

Methodology and Data Sources

• Data Sources:
  • Customs data from various countries.
  • Third-party disclosures (e.g., CABIA).
  • Company annual reports for annual back-testing.
• Quality Assurance:
  • Cross-checked with official import data from the US and Europe.
  • Aligns total export volume with third-party data.
• M&A Rank:
  • Ranges from 1 (high probability of acquisition) to 3 (low probability).
  • M&A ranks 1 and 2 are incorporated into target prices.
• Quantum Database:
  • Proprietary database used for detailed financial analysis and comparisons.
• GS Factor Profile:
  • Analyzes stocks based on Growth, Financial Returns, Multiple, and Integrated.
  • Uses normalized ranks for metrics like sales, EBITDA, and EPS growth.

Investment Banking Relationships

• Rating Distribution:
  • Buy: 49% of global coverage.
  • Hold: 34% of global coverage.
  • Sell: 17% of global coverage.
• Investment Banking Relationships:
  • Buy: 62% of companies in each rating category.
  • Hold: 57% of companies in each rating category.
  • Sell: 40% of companies in each rating category.

Regulatory Disclosures

• Analyst Certification:
  • Eric Shen and Qiying Wei, CFA, certify that the views in the report reflect their personal opinions.
• Conflicts of Interest:
  • Goldman Sachs policy prohibits analysts and related parties from owning securities of companies in their coverage areas.
• Analyst Compensation:
  • Analysts are partially compensated based on the profitability of Goldman Sachs, including investment banking revenues.
• Non-U.S. Analysts:
  • May not be associated persons of Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC and are not subject to FINRA Rule 2241 or 2242 restrictions.

Additional Disclosures

• Australia:
  • Goldman Sachs Australia is not an authorized deposit-taking institution.
  • Research is intended for "wholesale clients" only.
• Research Independence:
  • Goldman Sachs maintains independence in its sell-side research.

Conclusion

The China battery sector continues to grow, with strong export performance and increasing CAPEX investments. While domestic challenges persist, the export market, particularly to RoW, is driving growth. CATL remains a top performer, though its H-Shr has been downgraded. The report provides comprehensive data and investment insights, supported by rigorous methodologies and regulatory compliance.