【国际能源署】通过分散的电力系统赋予乌克兰权力-乌克兰到2030年增加分布式能源使用的路线图-2024

Summary of "Empowering Ukraine Through a Decentralised Electricity System"

Core Content

This report, Empowering Ukraine Through a Decentralised Electricity System, presents a roadmap for Ukraine to increase the use of distributed energy resources (DERs) to rebuild and modernise its power sector by 2030. It is developed by the International Energy Agency (IEA) in response to the significant damage to Ukraine's energy infrastructure caused by Russia's full-scale invasion since February 2022.

Main Views and Key Information

Ukraine's Power Needs and Challenges

• Ukraine has suffered severe damage to its power infrastructure, with nearly two-thirds of its dispatchable generation capacity lost or destroyed by 2024.
• The country is facing a significant winter power deficit, estimated at 6 GW in 2024/2025, which could lead to prolonged and widespread power cuts.
• The power system is vulnerable due to the lack of flexible generation capacity, which is essential for managing the variability of renewable energy and demand fluctuations.

Role of Distributed Energy Resources (DERs)

• DERs, such as solar PV, wind, batteries, and small modular gas turbines, offer strategic advantages for Ukraine's recovery.
• They are geographically distributed, reducing vulnerability to attacks and enabling local generation close to demand.
• DERs are modular and scalable, allowing for rapid deployment and adaptability to evolving system needs.
• They contribute to system resilience, flexibility, and long-term decarbonisation goals.

Cost and Efficiency of DERs

• Rebuilding the power system with only small modular gas turbines and gas engines would require USD 13.4 billion in upfront investment.
• A more diverse DER deployment, including variable renewables and batteries, would cost between USD 15.5 billion and USD 23 billion.
• However, factoring in ongoing fuel costs, DERs are more cost-effective over time, potentially reducing annual system costs by 5.6%.
• Enhanced interconnection with Europe could increase cost savings to 6.3% and reduce upfront investment needs by almost USD 2 billion.

Long-Term Objectives

• Ukraine's 2030 National Energy and Climate Plan (NECP) aims to achieve a modern, integrated, and decarbonised power system.
• The report suggests that achieving these goals requires a shift from traditional supply-side approaches to more integrated and coordinated planning involving all energy sector actors.

Seven Key Policy Recommendations

1. Create a vision for a decentralised power system: Develop a holistic DER strategy that aligns with Ukraine's long-term goals of resilience, decarbonisation, and affordability.
2. Improve the regulatory framework: Address administrative and regulatory barriers to enable a smooth post-war transition and support consumer-side DERs.
3. Reform electricity markets: Adjust market design to accommodate DERs, improve market access, and ensure price signals reflect system requirements.
4. Strengthen transmission and distribution capacity and coordination: Expand the role of distribution utilities in planning and operations, and promote close collaboration between TSOs and DSOs.
5. Establish clear technical requirements for DER connection: Update grid codes to ensure the quality and reliability of supply, and set standards for DERs to comply with grid requirements.
6. Enhance asset visibility, monitorability, and control: Develop robust data infrastructure, including DER registries and advanced metering, to improve system security and enable consumer participation.
7. Set appropriate legislative and financial foundations: Create a supportive environment for private investment and donor funding to scale up DER deployment and ensure long-term sustainability.

Conclusion

The report underscores the importance of DERs in addressing Ukraine's immediate and long-term energy challenges. It advocates for a comprehensive, coordinated approach involving policy, regulation, market design, and technical upgrades to support the transition to a more resilient, sustainable, and decentralised power system. This approach is essential for Ukraine to meet its energy security needs, reduce the impact of ongoing attacks, and align with its decarbonisation and integration goals with the European Union.