2024-10-27-IEA-2024年10月石油市场月报比较分析（英）_24页_512kb

October 2024 Oil Market Summary

Demand Projections

• Overall oil demand growth forecasts are being revised downward. EIA reduced its 2024 growth forecast by 0.2 mb/d and 2025 by 0.2 mb/d. OPEC lowered 2024 growth to 1.9 mb/d y/y and 2025 to 1.6 mb/d y/y, remaining higher than IEA and EIA estimates. Key drivers include OECD demand adjustments, China's fuel consumption concerns, and monetary stimulus uncertainties. For 2025, forecast divergence decreased compared to 2024, but still exists.

Supply Projections

• Non-OPEC supply growth is declining due to downward revisions. EIA cut its forecast by 0.1 mb/d y/y, with IEA and OPEC aligning on U.S. supply growth. OPEC anticipates declines in supply from countries like Angola, but stable growth from US, Canada, and Brazil supports overall supply. EIA highlights substantial spare capacity available to offset disruptions.

Market Volatility

• Volatility increased in October due to Hurricane Milton and mixed signals on global demand and supply. Despite geopolitical risks in Europe and the Middle East, market responses remained moderate due to ample supply and subdued demand growth forecasts.

Outlook and Forecast Divergence

• For 2023-2025, demand forecasts diverge significantly, with OPEC's projections often higher. By 2025, global demand divergence is expected to reach over 2.5 mb/d y/y. OPEC's "call on DoC" indicates a need for higher production, projected 2.4 mb/d above IEA estimates for 2025. Supply divergence in non-OPEC regions like the US and Africa also persists, with mixed agency views.

Key Takeaways

• Oil market outlook is fragmented, with agencies diverging on demand and supply growth. Supply stability provides some resilience, but demand uncertainties and volatile events highlight risks to the market.