2024-06-23-IEA-2024年6月石油市场月报的比较分析（英）_24页_540kb

IEF Comparative Analysis of Monthly Oil Market Reports

Core Content Overview

The IEF Comparative Analysis presents a detailed comparison of oil market forecasts from the International Energy Agency (IEA), the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), and the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). The analysis covers global and regional demand and supply projections for 2023–2025, along with insights into policy decisions and market risks.

Key Points

Demand Forecasts

• Global Demand:

  • OPEC projects a demand growth of 2.2 mb/d for 2024 and 1.8 mb/d for 2025.
  • IEA forecasts 1.0 mb/d for 2024 and 1.2 mb/d for 2025.
  • EIA predicts 1.1 mb/d for 2024 and 1.5 mb/d for 2025.
  • The range of demand forecasts is 1.2 mb/d for 2024 and 0.8 mb/d for 2025, indicating a narrowing of differences.

• OECD Demand:

  • IEA forecasts a slight decline in OECD demand growth for 2024, with a range of -0.2 mb/d to -0.1 mb/d.
  • OPEC projects a modest increase, while EIA maintains a neutral stance.

• Non-OECD Demand:

  • IEA forecasts 1.1 mb/d growth in 2024 and 1.2 mb/d in 2025.
  • OPEC projects 2.0 mb/d growth in 2024 and 1.7 mb/d in 2025.
  • EIA estimates 1.1 mb/d for 2024 and 1.3 mb/d for 2025.

Supply Forecasts

• Non-DoC Supply:

  • OPEC forecasts 1.4 mb/d growth in 2024 and 1.1 mb/d in 2025.
  • IEA forecasts 1.0 mb/d for 2024 and 1.5 mb/d for 2025.
  • EIA forecasts 1.0 mb/d for 2024 and 1.7 mb/d for 2025.

• Non-OPEC Supply:

  • OPEC projects 1.4 mb/d growth in 2024 and 1.1 mb/d in 2025.
  • IEA forecasts 1.0 mb/d for 2024 and 1.5 mb/d for 2025.
  • EIA forecasts 1.0 mb/d for 2024 and 1.7 mb/d for 2025.

Policy and Market Response

• The 37th OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting extended the 2.2 mb/d voluntary production cut until September 2024, followed by a gradual phase-out.
• Additional collective cuts and voluntary measures amount to 3.66 mb/d, extended until the end of 2025.
• The current total cuts are 5.86 mb/d.
• Market responses anticipate a gradual increase in supply from October 2024, but divergent forecasts and mixed signals from macroeconomic indicators and interest rate policies create uncertainty.

Risks

• Supply Chain Disruptions:
  • Conflicts and geopolitical tensions have increased energy security risks.
  • A Norwegian gas pipeline shutdown caused gas prices in Northwest Europe to spike.
  • Maintenance at a gas field in the East Mediterranean worsened gas market shortages.

Summary of 2023–2025 Balances

• The divergence in demand forecasts is decreasing slightly.
• Non-DoC supply is projected to grow at a slower pace in 2024 compared to 2023, with a range of 0.4 mb/d in 2025.
• The call on DoC is expected to increase significantly in 2024 and 2025, with OPEC projecting 0.9 mb/d and 1.1 mb/d growth, respectively, compared to -0.5 mb/d and -0.5 mb/d from IEA and EIA.

2024 Outlook Comparison

• OPEC maintains higher demand growth than IEA and EIA, with a 0.3 mb/d increase in global demand forecasts.
• EIA revised its 2024 demand forecast upward by 0.2 mb/d in Q3 and Q4, and by 0.1 mb/d for the full year.
• IEA revised its 2024 demand forecast downward by 0.1 mb/d.
• Non-OPEC supply growth is expected to be higher than OPEC's forecast, with EIA projecting 1.6 mb/d.

2025 Outlook Comparison

• The divergence in demand forecasts remains significant, with OPEC projecting 0.8 mb/d higher growth than IEA.
• Non-OPEC supply growth is forecasted to be stronger by IEA and EIA compared to OPEC.
• Call on DoC crude is expected to be higher by OPEC than IEA and EIA, with a gap of 2.25 mb/d in Q4 2025.

Main Trends and Views

Demand

• OPEC has a more optimistic outlook on global demand, projecting higher growth.
• IEA and EIA have lower demand growth forecasts, with EIA showing a modest upward revision.

Supply

• Non-OPEC supply growth is expected to rise, with EIA forecasting higher growth than OPEC.
• OPEC forecasts lower non-DoC supply growth, but higher call on DoC due to a stronger demand outlook.

Policy

• OPEC+ has extended production cuts to stabilize the market.
• The phase-out of cuts is expected to begin in October 2024.

Risks

• Supply chain disruptions and geopolitical tensions are major concerns.
• These disruptions have impacted gas prices and shortages in certain regions.

Key Organizations and Their Forecasts

• IEA:

  • Global Demand: 1.0 mb/d (2024), 1.2 mb/d (2025).
  • Non-DoC Supply: 1.5 mb/d (2025).
  • Call on DoC: -0.5 mb/d (2024), -0.5 mb/d (2025).

• EIA:

  • Global Demand: 1.1 mb/d (2024), 1.5 mb/d (2025).
  • Non-DoC Supply: 1.7 mb/d (2025).
  • Call on DoC: -0.6 mb/d (2024), -0.5 mb/d (2025).

• OPEC:

  • Global Demand: 2.2 mb/d (2024), 1.8 mb/d (2025).
  • Non-DoC Supply: 1.4 mb/d (2024), 1.1 mb/d (2025).
  • Call on DoC: 0.9 mb/d (2024), 1.1 mb/d (2025).

Summary of Key Forecasts

• Global Demand:

  • OPEC: 104.5 mb/d (2024), 106.3 mb/d (2025).
  • IEA: 103.2 mb/d (2024), 104.2 mb/d (2025).
  • EIA: 103.0 mb/d (2024), 104.5 mb/d (2025).

• Non-OECD Demand:

  • OPEC: 2.0 mb/d (2024), 1.7 mb/d (2025).
  • IEA: 1.1 mb/d (2024), 1.2 mb/d (2025).
  • EIA: 1.1 mb/d (2024), 1.3 mb/d (2025).

• Non-DoC Supply:

  • OPEC: 1.4 mb/d (2024), 1.1 mb/d (2025).
  • IEA: 1.0 mb/d (2024), 1.5 mb/d (2025).
  • EIA: 1.0 mb/d (2024), 1.7 mb/d (2025).

• Call on DoC Crude:

  • OPEC: 0.9 mb/d (2024), 1.1 mb/d (2025).
  • IEA: -0.5 mb/d (2024), -0.5 mb/d (2025).
  • EIA: -0.6 mb/d (2024), -0.5 mb/d (2025).

Conclusion

The IEF Comparative Analysis highlights the divergence in oil market forecasts among IEA, OPEC, and EIA, particularly in demand and supply growth. While OPEC maintains a more optimistic outlook, IEA and EIA show more cautious projections. The extension of production cuts by OPEC+ aims to stabilize the market, but uncertainty remains due to mixed signals from global economic indicators and geopolitical tensions. Non-OPEC supply is expected to grow faster than OPEC's forecast, and supply chain disruptions pose significant risks to energy security.