2011年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Zambia_Sixth_Review_Under_the_Three_52页_1mb

Summary of Zambia's Sixth Review Under the Extended Credit Facility

Core Content

This document outlines the results of the sixth review under the three-year arrangement under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) for Zambia, including requests for a waiver of nonobservance of performance criteria and a financing assurances review. The review was conducted by the IMF staff, with discussions held in Lusaka and Washington, D.C., in March and April 2011. The staff report was finalized on June 6, 2011, and includes an Executive Summary, background on economic performance, outlook and policy discussions, and a staff appraisal of the program.

Main Views and Key Information

1. Economic Performance

• Growth and Inflation: Zambia's economy continued to perform strongly, with real GDP growth at 7.6% in 2010. Inflation rose slightly in May 2011 to 8.9% due to fuel price increases, but remained moderate overall.
• Macroeconomic Indicators:
  • The current account was in surplus.
  • International reserves remained solid at about 3.3 months of prospective imports.
  • Net domestic financing (NDF) was 0.3% of GDP higher than targeted in 2010.
• Sector Contributions:
  • Mining and services were the main contributors to growth.
  • Agriculture and construction showed mixed performance.

2. Program Performance

• Performance Criteria:
  • All but one quantitative performance criteria (QPC) were met.
  • Two indicative targets and two structural benchmarks were missed.
  • The structural benchmark on the lender of last resort and financial sector contingency plan was met with delay.
• Fiscal Management:
  • The fiscal program aims to reduce NDF from 2.8% of GDP in 2010 to 1.3% in 2011.
  • Revenue exceeded projections by about 1% of GDP due to higher growth and tax agreements.
  • Expenditure is shifting toward social and capital spending.

3. Economic Outlook

• Growth Prospects:
  • Real GDP growth is projected to remain strong at 6.75% in 2011.
  • The external current account is expected to stay in surplus.
  • International reserve coverage is targeted to strengthen further to 3.4 months of prospective imports.
• Poverty Reduction:
  • Urban poverty has declined significantly over the past decade.
  • Rural poverty remains high, and the new Sixth National Development Plan aims to address this by focusing on labor-intensive agriculture.
  • The authorities aim to promote more inclusive and pro-poor growth in the medium term.

4. Policy Discussions

• Monetary Policy:
  • The Bank of Zambia (BoZ) has tightened monetary policy to bring inflation down to 7% by year-end.
  • The BoZ has removed the monetary overhang and brought reserve money in line with the indicative target.
  • The BoZ should continue to monitor inflation, especially underlying nonfood inflation, and maintain tight monetary policy.
• Fiscal Policy:
  • The fiscal program is appropriate and targets a significant decline in NDF.
  • The government is working to contain current spending, particularly wages and FRA transfers.
  • Civil service reforms are recommended for the future.
• Maize Market:
  • The government is expected to continue its active involvement in the maize market due to private sector capacity constraints.
  • A record maize harvest is anticipated, and the FRA floor price is the same as in 2010.
  • The government plans to shift towards market pricing and reduce export/import controls in the medium term.

5. Financial Sector

• Sector Stability:
  • The financial sector remains sound and adequately capitalized.
  • NPLs have increased since the global financial crisis, but are beginning to decline.
• Reforms and Challenges:
  • The BoZ is strengthening the financial crisis resolution framework and improving monitoring through stress testing.
  • Financial inclusion remains low, with only 37% of adults having access to financial services in 2009.
  • Interest rate spreads and overhead costs are high compared to regional benchmarks, partly due to NPLs and lack of economies of scale.
• IMF Recommendations:
  • The authorities are encouraged to implement the Financial Sector Development Plan (phase II) to improve access and reduce costs.
  • The BoZ should develop measures for underlying inflation to enhance policy formulation and communication.

6. Financing and Debt Management

• Nonconcessional Financing:
  • The government plans its first international bond issue in the second half of 2011 to finance growth-critical investments.
  • The bond proceeds will be used for infrastructure and power generation projects.
• Credit Rating:
  • Zambia received a “B+ Stable” rating from Fitch and Standard & Poor’s, placing it on par with Ghana and Kenya.
• Debt Management:
  • The authorities are strengthening debt management and project appraisal capacities.
  • They are advised to manage maturity and exchange rate risks and ensure debt sustainability.

7. Other Considerations

• Exchange Controls:
  • The government is working to settle arrears to external private creditors, following the removal of exchange controls.
• Future Engagement:
  • The authorities expressed interest in continuing program engagement after the ECF arrangement expires in June 2011.
  • They believe the ECF has played a key role in maintaining macroeconomic stability and mitigating the impact of the global crisis.
  • A follow-up arrangement should focus on inclusive growth and poverty reduction based on a well-defined medium-term economic program.

Conclusion

The staff recommends the completion of the sixth review under the ECF, as the program has been broadly successful. While some performance criteria were not met, the authorities are on track to address these issues. The economy continues to grow strongly, with a positive outlook for 2011, and the government is working to ensure that fiscal and monetary policies remain aligned with inflation control and poverty reduction goals. The financial sector is stable, but further reforms are needed to improve access and efficiency. The government's planned bond issuance and continued engagement with the IMF signal a commitment to sustainable growth and development.