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Catalysts Fueling the Next Wave for Techcombank (TCB)

Core Content and Key Points

Techcombank (TCB) is positioned for growth, driven by two key catalysts:

1. IPO of TCBS (Techcombank Securities): Expected to be listed by end-2025, this IPO could unlock significant value and strengthen TCB's capital base, leading to a boost in dividends and ROE.
2. Resolution 68: A new government directive aimed at boosting the private sector, which is expected to create structural tailwinds for private banks like TCB.

These catalysts support the investment thesis that TCB is a top pick, with a revised target price of VND36,730, reflecting a +21% increase from the previous estimate of VND30,230.

TCBS: The Crown Jewel

• Ownership: 94.1% owned by TCB, established in 2008.
• Business Model: Differentiated from traditional brokers by using TCB's branch network for distribution and investing heavily in technology (over 50% of employees are engineers or IT specialists).
• Market Leadership:
  • Ranked as the most profitable securities firm in Vietnam in 2024 with a ROE of 14.6%.
  • Consistently ranked among the top 3 in stock trading volumes on both HOSE and HNX.
  • Holds a 10% market share in margin lending with a margin loan-to-equity ratio of 97%, well below the regulatory cap of 200%.

Financial Performance of TCBS

• 2024 Net Profit: VND3,850bn, surpassing other listed brokers.
• Revenue Growth: 29% CAGR between 2019 and 2024.
• Earnings Growth: 21% CAGR between 2019 and 2024.
• Cost Efficiency: Cost-to-income ratio (CIR) dropped to 14% in 2024 from 19% in 2023.
• 1Q25 Performance:
  • Net profit rose to VND1,011bn (+9% YoY, +15% QoQ).
  • Operating revenue increased by 20% YoY to VND2,028bn.
  • Margin lending income rose 28% YoY to VND718bn.
  • Investment and bond distribution contributed 37% to total income.
  • Investment banking (IB) segment saw a 78% YoY increase, contributing 22% to total income.

Valuation and Impact of TCBS IPO

• Peer Valuation: Listed peers trade at 17x 2025 PE and 1.6x PB.
• Estimated TCBS Valuation: If using 2024 earnings and equity, the valuation could range between VND42,358bn and VND65,010bn.
• Fair Valuation: Expected to be above VND65,010bn due to:
  • Stronger 2025 financials.
  • Higher profitability and ROE compared to peers.
  • Scalable and asset-light business model, making PE a more suitable metric.
• Impact on TCB:
  • A 5% primary + 5% secondary offering would reduce TCB's stake in TCBS from 94.1% to 84.6%.
  • This would reduce TCB's reported net profit by ~2%, but the one-off gain from the stake sale and capital injection are expected to lift ROE by 82bps to 15.6%.
  • 2026-2027 Net Profit Forecasts are revised up by 1-6%.

Investment Thesis

• Strong Franchise: TCB has a strong presence in the affluent customer segment.
• Digital Transformation: TCB's focus on digitalisation has enhanced operational efficiency and strengthened its CASA franchise.
• Real Estate Recovery: Expected to drive growth in 2025.
• ESG Commitment: TCB has taken a leading role in ESG initiatives, including issuing the first Green Bond Framework in Vietnam and providing US$5bn in green financing.
• Strategic Alignment with Resolution 68: TCB is well-positioned to benefit from the government's push to develop the private sector, particularly in:
  • SME lending.
  • Digital transformation.
  • Capital market development.

Risks and Considerations

• Positive Catalysts:
  • Recovery in the real estate market.
  • Improved asset quality.
  • NIM recovery.
  • Successful TCBS IPO.
• Negative Risks:
  • Prolonged real estate downturn.
  • Higher credit costs.
  • Concentration risk in specific corporates.

Summary of TCBS's 2024 Performance

• Net Profit: VND3,850bn.
• ROE: 14.6%.
• Market Share:
  • HOSE: 7.7% (up from 6.6% YoY).
  • HNX: 8.2% (up from 8.4% YoY).
• Key Revenue Sources:
  • Investment and bond distribution: 40%.
  • Margin lending: 37%.
  • Investment banking: 20%.
  • Brokerage: 3%.

Valuation Summary

Fair Value Estimation for TCB

• Residual Income Model:
  • Current book value: VND168,275bn.
  • PV of terminal value: VND105,207bn.
  • Sum of PV of residual income: VND20,771bn.
  • Implied equity value: VND294,253bn.
  • Fair value per share: VND38,655.
• Fair PB Multiple:
  • Fair PB multiple: 1.6x.
  • Fair value per share: VND33,157.
• Weighted Fair Value:
  • Residual Income Model: 65% weight.
  • Fair PB Multiple: 35% weight.
  • Total Weighted Fair Value: VND36,730.

Conclusion

TCB's outlook is reinforced by the upcoming IPO of TCBS and Resolution 68. The IPO is expected to improve TCB's capital efficiency and ROE, while Resolution 68 provides structural support for the private sector, benefiting TCB through increased lending, digital growth and capital market participation. The stock remains a Buy with a revised target price of VND36,730.