2025-06-11-花旗集团-美国经济_每日更新-随着通胀降温美联储将降息_13页_293kb

The US economy is showing signs of cooling inflation, with the May Core CPI at 0.13% month-over-month, lower than expectations. Core inflation is softening broadly, aside from minor tariff effects that are less significant than forecasted. The Federal Reserve is positioned to begin cutting interest rates starting in September, with a cumulative 125bp reduction expected by year-end. This contrasts with market expectations, which anticipate more modest cuts or no change, as Citi believes inflation will continue to decline and the labor market could weaken. Tariffs, though elevated, are not substantially boosting prices, as businesses face softer demand and may not fully pass costs to consumers. Services inflation has moderated, with shelter and airfares contributing to the broad slowdown. Job market indicators, including rising initial jobless claims and slower hiring, support the view of a cooling economy. Markets are pricing in minimal Fed action, but Citi suggests a faster pace of cuts due to understated risks of rising unemployment and sustained disinflationary pressures.