世界银行-移民作为社会保护_工作许可证市场的模拟（英）-2025.1_27页_1mb

Summary of Work Permits as a Social Protection Mechanism

Core Concept

The paper proposes a market-based policy where citizens of destination countries can rent out their temporary work permit rights to migrants, generating a basic income guarantee. Citizens retain their inalienable right to work but may sell it for financial compensation. Migrants purchase these permits to access labor markets, balancing the market through supply and demand.

Mechanism

• A two-sided market is created: citizens supply work rights, migrants demand temporary permits.
• Permit prices balance supply and demand, with a tax on permits serving as a regulatory tool to target poverty and adjust market size.
• The market provides a floor to income for destination country workers, potentially reducing poverty and boosting tax revenues.

Potential Benefits

• Poverty Reduction: Could lower the US poverty rate significantly (e.g., from 12.3% to 2.8%) through targeted income support.
• Economic Effects: Increases migrant productivity, contributes to GDP growth, and raises tax revenues (e.g., 5% increase in US fiscal revenues under baseline).
• Social Protection: Offers a basic income guarantee (BIG) without working, encouraging entrepreneurship and providing a safety net.

Calibration and Quantitative Results

• Baseline US-Mexico simulation: Permit price ~$20,000, 33 million permits traded, average migrant earnings ~$50,000.
• Sensitivity analyses show varying outcomes based on cost parameters (e.g., migration costs, cost of living differences), with poverty reduction ranging from minimal to substantial.
• Tax simulations indicate that higher taxes reduce beneficiaries but increase BIG transfers, potentially eradicating poverty at high tax rates (e.g., 141% tax reduces poverty to 2.8%).

Regulation Through Tax

• Taxing work permits allows governments to manage market size, targeting the poorest workers.
• Revenues can fund lump-sum transfers, enhancing the BIG scheme while balancing breadth and depth of social protection.

Challenges and Limitations

• Depends on perfect enforcement of immigration and labor laws; imperfect enforcement could shrink the market.
• Implementation issues include eligibility for unemployed/inactive citizens and potential distortions from informal labor markets.
• Uncertainties in migration data and parameter values affect real-world applicability.

Conclusion

A regulated market for temporary work permits can effectively provide a basic income guarantee, reduce poverty, and generate tax revenues, offering a progressive and self-targeting social protection mechanism. While illustrative, simulations suggest significant potential for enhancing worker welfare and economic inclusion.