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ECB Monetary Policy Summary - 6 June 2024

Core Content

On 6 June 2024, the European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council made a significant monetary policy decision to lower the three key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points. This move marks a shift from the previous nine months of rate stability, as the Council deems it appropriate to moderate the degree of monetary policy restriction in light of improved inflation outlook and weakening price pressures.

Key Policy Decisions

• Interest Rates:
  The main refinancing operations rate, marginal lending facility rate, and deposit facility rate were all reduced to:

  • Main refinancing operations: 4.25%
  • Marginal lending facility: 4.50%
  • Deposit facility: 3.75%
    Effective from 12 June 2024.

• PEPP Portfolio Reduction:
  The ECB confirmed a monthly reduction of €7.5 billion in the Eurosystem's holdings of securities under the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP) over the second half of 2024. The modalities for this reduction will align with those used in the Asset Purchase Programme (APP).

• Reinvestment of PEPP Securities:
  Full reinvestment of principal payments from maturing PEPP securities will continue until the end of June 2024. After that, the ECB will discontinue reinvestments under PEPP.

Inflation Outlook

• Headline Inflation:

  • 2024: 2.5%
  • 2025: 2.2%
  • 2026: 1.9%

• Core Inflation (Excluding Energy and Food):

  • 2024: 2.8%
  • 2025: 2.2%
  • 2026: 2.0%

• Recent Data:

  • Annual inflation rose to 2.6% in May, up from 2.4% in April.
  • Services inflation increased to 4.1%, while goods inflation decreased to 0.8%.
  • Energy inflation rose to 0.3%, after negative rates for a year.
  • Food inflation declined to 2.6%.

• Underlying Inflation:
  Continued to decline in April, reinforcing the trend of diminishing price pressures. However, domestic inflation remains elevated, driven by strong wage growth and one-off payments.

Economic Growth Projections

• Growth in 2024: 0.9%

• Growth in 2025: 1.4%

• Growth in 2026: 1.6%

• Current Performance:
  The euro area economy grew by 0.3% in the first quarter of 2024, following five quarters of stagnation. The services sector is expanding, and manufacturing is stabilizing at low levels.

• Employment:
  Increased by 0.3% in the first quarter, with 500,000 new jobs created. The unemployment rate fell to 6.4%, the lowest since the start of the euro.

Risk Assessment

• Economic Growth Risks:

  • Balanced in the near term, but tilted to the downside over the medium term.
  • Geopolitical risks (e.g., Russia-Ukraine war, Middle East conflict) could affect confidence and global trade.
  • Weaker global growth or trade tensions could reduce euro area growth.

• Inflation Risks:

  • Upside risks include unexpected increases in wages or profits, heightened geopolitical tensions, and extreme weather events.
  • Downside risks could arise from unexpectedly stronger monetary policy tightening or weaker global economic conditions.

Financial and Monetary Conditions

• Market Interest Rates:
  Have risen since the April meeting. Financing costs remain restrictive, with average rates on new loans to firms and new mortgages at 5.2% and 3.8% respectively.

• Credit Dynamics:

  • Bank lending to firms grew at 0.3% annually in April.
  • Loans to households grew at 0.2% annually.
  • Broad money (M3) growth increased to 1.3% in April.

• Financial Stability:
  Euro area banks remain resilient, and macroprudential policies are in place to counter financial vulnerabilities. The Council emphasized its readiness to adjust all instruments within its mandate to maintain price stability and smooth monetary policy transmission.

Conclusion

The ECB remains committed to returning inflation to its 2% medium-term target in a timely manner. It will maintain restrictive policy rates as long as necessary and continue a data-dependent approach to rate decisions. The Council is not pre-committing to a specific rate path and is prepared to adjust its instruments as needed to ensure monetary policy effectiveness and financial stability.