2019-06-27_DTZ戴德梁行_Multifamily_Q1_2019_MultifamilyQ12019_4页_444kb

报告摘要

Sacramento Region Multifamily Market Summary - Q1 2019

Core Content Overview

The Sacramento Region multifamily market experienced positive trends in Q1 2019, characterized by rent growth, absorption, and new supply. The market absorbed 182 units during the quarter, with Sacramento County and Placer County leading in net gains. Vacancy rates remained stable overall but increased in smaller submarkets. Sales volume was slower than previous years, with only six properties transacted for $137 million, but the market is expected to reach an annual average of $562 million by year-end.

Economic Indicators

Sacramento Region Employment: Increased by 28,500 jobs year-over-year (YOY) to 1.01 million.
Sacramento Region Unemployment: Dropped to 3.7% from 3.9%.
U.S. Unemployment: Decreased to 3.8% from 4.1%.
Labor Force: Increased by 25,200 to 1,112,900.

Market Indicators

Metric	Q1 2018	Q1 2019	12-Month Forecast
Overall Vacancy	2.5%	2.7%	▲
Net Absorption (sf)	(21)	182	▲
Under Construction	3,330	3,658	▲
Average Asking Rent	$1,253	$1,332	▲

Submarket Analysis

Submarket	Inventory Units	Q1 Vacancy Rate	Net Absorption (Units)	Average Rent Per Unit	Units Under Construction	Units Planned
Sacramento – Downtown	3,007	6.4%	12	$1,724	947	3,353
Sacramento – Suburban	43,976	2.4%	24	$1,197	1,020	2,594
Carmichael	5,095	2.7%	-3	$1,064	0	0
Citrus Heights	10,640	1.9%	4	$1,242	0	0
North Highlands	7,564	2.0%	8	$1,184	0	80
Orangevale – Folsom	5,314	2.7%	16	$1,518	663	60
Rancho Cordova	8,796	2.5%	99	$1,264	0	48
Sacramento County Total	84,392	2.5%	160	$1,268	2,630	6,135
Davis	3,412	3.7%	0	$1,793	453	824
Woodland	3,686	1.5%	-7	$1,071	0	0
Yolo County Total	7,098	2.6%	-7	$1,574	453	824
Roseville	11,997	4.2%	29	$1,513	575	803
Placer County Total	11,997	4.2%	29	$1,513	575	803
Total Market	103,487	2.7%	182	$1,332	3,658	7,762

Key Sales Transactions

Property	City	Units	Avg SF	Sale Price	Price/Unit	Price/SF	Class	Buyer	Seller
Sunrise Commons	Citrus Heights	168	793	$32,500,000	$193,452	$215	B	Oregon Pacific	JCM Partners
Crossing at Wyndham I	Sacramento	151	734	$21,788,590	$144,295	$204	C	OpenPath Investments	JCM Partners
Crossing at Wyndham II	Sacramento	147	734	$21,211,409	$144,295	$204	C	OpenPath Investments	JCM Partners
Riverside Villas	Sacramento	100	827	$16,000,000	$160,000	$188	C	Tajirian Investments	JCM Partners
Florin Woods Apartments	Sacramento	95	788	$10,800,000	$113,684	$144	C	Florin Woods LLC	Margaret Murphy

Market Trends and Outlook

Rental Growth: The average asking rent increased to $1,332 per unit, representing a 6.3% YOY rise, 19.7% over three years, and 37.5% over five years.
Yolo County: Recorded the highest asking rent increase at 25.7% YOY, with a vacancy rate rising from 1.5% to 2.6%.
Sacramento County: Maintained a low vacancy rate of 2.5%, but is expected to rise above 3.0% due to new supply.
Cap Rates: The Sacramento Region's average cap rate and the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate are below historical averages, with the cap rate spread at $2.8%.
Interest Rates: The federal funds target rate is forecasted to rise, and the conventional 30-year fixed rate is at 4.3%.
Development Pipeline: 3,658 units are under construction, with over 2,700 expected to deliver in 2019. Sacramento County accounts for the majority of developments, driven by growth in government, health, and office sectors.
Population Growth: Expected to strengthen through 2022, supporting continued demand for multifamily housing.