2025-05-21-Jefferies-拉夫·劳伦（RL）_初步评估第四季度业绩超预期_财年指引保守_第一季度指引高于预期_7页_102kb

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Equity Research Summary: Ralph Lauren (RL)
- Initial Rating: BUY with a price target of $250.00 (down from prior $273.88), reflecting a -9% downside from last close based on conservative forward P/E multiple.
- Q4 Performance: Revenue and EPS beat expectations, with net revenue up +10% constant currency, gross margin at 68.6% (+200bps YoY), driven by strong China growth (>20%) and a positive AUR (+HSD%). Regional beats included North America (+5.8% CC), Europe (+15.6% CC), and APAC (+13.3% CC). SG&A at 58.4% (+60bps YoY), and operating EPS beat by 150bps.
- Q1 Guidance: Revenue expected to grow +HSD% constant currency, above Street's 5.2%, with operating margin expansion of 150-200bps due to higher GM% and expense leverage.
- Risks and Valuation: Risks include macro volatility, tariffs, cotton cost inflation, and value consumer weakness. The price target is justified by forward P/E, and valuation multiples are listed in the report. Key questions for earnings call include confidence in FY guidance, AUR outlook, tariff impact, inventory build, and China momentum.
- Overall View: Despite conservative guidance, Ralph Lauren demonstrates resilient performance, with China as a standout, but tariffs could drive inventory buildup. The stock is rated BUY for 12-month total return potential.

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