2025-05-20-Jefferies-维必杰（WJL）_2025财年业绩-初步概览_7页_175kb

FY25 & FY26 Summary for Webjet Group (WJL)

Core Content Overview

This document provides an analysis of Webjet Group's FY25 results and FY26 outlook, along with key financial metrics, analyst ratings, and valuation methodologies. It also includes information on the company's business operations, market risks, and regulatory disclosures.

FY25 Results vs. JEF

• Total Travel Value (TTV): Missed by -2% (A$1.50b vs. JEF A$1.53b)
• Revenue: Missed by -4% (A$140m vs. JEF A$147m)
• EBITDA pre SBP: Missed by -2% (A$39.4m vs. JEF A$40m)
• NPAT post SBP: In line with JEF (A$18m vs. JEF A$18m)
• Unrestricted Cash: Missed by -13% (A$118m vs. JEF A$136m)

FY26 Outlook

• Underlying EBITDA: Expected to be broadly in line with FY25, assuming no further deterioration in trading.
• Domestic Bookings: Weak start with -11% y/y growth in the first 6 weeks of FY26.
• International Bookings: +5% y/y growth in the first 6 weeks of FY26.
• Buyback: Deferred due to BGH bid, with no other specific mention of the bid.

What We Liked

• International Flight Penetration: Increased from 20% in 1H25 to 21% in 2H25.
• Non-Air Ancillaries Growth: Demonstrated positive trends.
• Revenue Growth: A$96m in FY25 vs. FY24 A$90m and pre-Covid FY19 A$80m.

What We Didn't Like

• EBITDA Miss: -2% against JEF expectations.
• Weak Domestic Performance: -11% y/y growth in the first 6 weeks of FY26.
• Unrestricted Cash Miss: -13% against JEF expectations.
• Buyback Deferral: Due to BGH bid, impacting shareholder returns.

Financial Summary (Figure 1)

Analyst Ratings and Investment Recommendation

• Rating: BUY
• Price Target: AUD0.90 (+3% from current price of AUD0.87)
• Investment Recommendation Record: Published and distributed on May 20, 2025.

Jefferies Ratings Explanation

• Buy: Expected total return of 15% or more within 12 months.
• Hold: Expected total return of plus or minus 15% within 12 months.
• Underperform: Expected total return of minus 10% or less within 12 months.
• NR/CS/NC/Restricted/Monitor: Indicates temporary suspension, coverage suspension, not covered, restricted communications, or ongoing monitoring without financial projections.

Valuation Methodology

Jefferies uses a combination of methods to determine valuations and price targets, including:

• Market capitalization
• Maturity, growth/value
• Volatility
• Expected total return over the next 12 months
• DCF, EBITDA, EPS, cash flow, free cash flow, EV/EBITDA, P/E, P/CF, P/FCF, etc.

Key Risks

• Intensifying Competitive Rivalry: Threat from both online and traditional travel service providers.
• Disruptive Events: Including pandemics, geopolitical conflicts, macroeconomic issues, terrorism, and energy price inflation.
• Changing Supplier Relationships: Pressure on commissions from consolidated airline sector.
• Search Engine Algorithm Changes: Potential negative impact on Webjet's website traffic.
• Privacy Breach: Risk of reputational and financial damage from data security issues.

Company Description

Webjet Group Ltd. is an online travel agency (OTA) that also operates GoSee, a global motorhome and car rental e-commerce platform. Founded in 1998, it is headquartered in Melbourne, Australia.

Investment Recommendation Record

• Ratings Distribution:
  • BUY: 60.57% (IB Serv./Past12 Mos.)
  • HOLD: 35.08% (IB Serv./Past12 Mos.)
  • UNDERPERFORM: 4.35% (IB Serv./Past12 Mos.)

Other Important Disclosures

• Jefferies may have conflicts of interest due to business relationships with companies covered in research.
• The report is not tailored to individual investors and should be considered alongside other factors.
• Regulatory disclosures vary by jurisdiction, and the report is subject to compliance with local laws and regulations.
• This report is not an offer to buy or sell any security or derivative instrument.

Summary of Key Points

• Webjet Group (WJL) reported a slight miss in FY25 results compared to JEF, particularly in TTV, Revenue, and EBITDA.
• The company has a growing international flight share and non-air ancillaries, which are positive trends.
• FY26 guidance remains broadly unchanged, but the early performance has been weak for domestic bookings.
• The BUY rating is given with a price target of AUD0.90, indicating confidence in the company's long-term prospects.
• Analysts highlight the need for continued M&A activity and brand revitalization efforts.
• Valuation methods include DCF, EV/EBITDA, and P/E ratios, with multiple factors considered.
• The report includes significant risk factors and is subject to regulatory compliance and disclosure requirements in various jurisdictions.