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Jefferies USA Consumer Equity Research Summary

Date: June 12, 2025

Key Findings

1. 🚶‍♂️ Foot Traffic and Web Traffic 📊

   • Nike (NKE):
     • Foot traffic accelerated to +4.1% YoY, marking its third consecutive month of growth with a sequential improvement.
     • Inventory-clearing efforts via factory stores are gaining traction, signaling a potential V-shaped recovery by F'25 (contributor's note: 2027?).
   • **RL (Ralph Lauren):**Foot traffic improved to +2% YoY, reversing losses from previous months.
   • Apparel: Tommy Hilfiger (-1.6% YoY) and Levi’s (-0.1% YoY) show slight stability, while Calvin Klein continues to focus on marketing.

2. 📉 Competition & Market Trends

   • Athletic Footwear:
     • HOKA web traffic slowed to -17% YoY from +37% in April.
     • Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS) shows flat foot traffic YoY, with its sporting goods segment rebounding.
   • Fitness Brands:
     • Planet Fitness (PLNT) saw a 5.1% YoY foot traffic increase, while competitors like StretchLab faced declines.

3. 💎 Sector Insights

   • Discount/Mass Retail: TGT (+8.8% YoY web traffic), BJ (+20% app downloads), and BURL (+87% social engagement) lead gains.
   • Home Improvement: TSCO led with +4.1% foot traffic YoY and better-than-expected results.
   • Lifestyle Brands: Coach (NKE top pick) web traffic slowed to +3% YoY, while RL’s foot traffic inflected positive.

Observations

✅ Turning Points:

• NKE’s acceleration in foot traffic suggests improved supply chain and retail execution.
• TSCO’s performance highlights stabilization in home improvement categories.

🔥 Risks:

• Fitness & Apparel subsectors lag in web/social engagement despite foot traffic gains.
• Elevated labor market uncertainty may temper consumer spending.

💼 Analyst Pick:

• NKE: Buy rating, citing short-term momentum and potential V-shaped recovery.

Note: Detailed subsector data included (e.g., Fitness, Home Improvement, Apparel) but summarized here due to length.

For full methodological details and equity research disclosures: See appended pages 21-27.