20240226-东吴证券-聚和材料-688503.SH-2023年业绩快报点评_23Q4电池停线银浆量利承压_3月LECO有望上量_3页_450kb

Summary of East Capital Securities' 2023 Performance Estimate Report for Poly Materials (688503)

Key Performance

• Released 2023 annual performance estimate showing a significant increase in net profit, with a 1412% year-over-year growth. However, the fourth quarter (Q4) results were disappointing due to reduced earnings from battery line stoppages and lower processing fees, leading to a substantial decline.

Market Position and Operations

• Silver paste business: 2023 shipments reached approximately 2000 tons, a 47% increase, with expected Q4 shipments of 550-570 tons, indicating a 10% month-over-month decrease. Q4 performance was affected by N-type cell adoption and competitive pressures in P-type markets.
• 2024 outlook: LECO silver paste is expected to ramp up in March, with processing fees around 800 yuan/kg, offering premium pricing. Full-year 2024 shipments aim for over 3000 tons.
• Expansion efforts: Company capacity is now at 3000 tons, with plans for a 600-ton project in Thailand. Silver powder self-sufficiency is increasing, with 100% domestic use in PERC and partial use in TOPCon, along with planned investments to supply 500 tons domestically by 2024.
• Research and development: Strong capabilities in non-photovoltaic materials, with products in electronics and other sectors. 0BB glue provides higher profitability compared to silver paste.

Financials and Projections

• Updated earnings forecast for 2023-2025: Adjusted to 45/74/95 billion yuan (down from previous 59/82/102 billion), reflecting industry challenges. Valuation maintains an 18x price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for 2024.
• Recommendation: Maintain "Buy" based on advantages in technology and market position, but caution due to industry headwinds.

Risks

• Potential policy changes and increased competition could impact performance.