2018国际工程造价报告（英文版）-3mb

Summary of "TACKLING COSTS IN THE DIGITAL AGE" - International Construction Costs 2018

Core Content

The document outlines the challenges and opportunities in the global construction industry in 2018, emphasizing the impact of economic growth, digital transformation, and cost pressures. It highlights the role of digital technologies in improving efficiency, productivity, and value for construction clients, while also analyzing the cost dynamics across major global construction markets.

Main Points

• Global Economic Growth: The global economy is expected to grow at rates exceeding the long-term average of 3.9% per annum. This growth is anticipated to accelerate construction demand worldwide, especially in the U.S., Europe, and Asia.

• Construction Cost Pressures: With rising demand, construction costs are under increased pressure. The report stresses the importance of cost efficiency and value for money, particularly in markets where labor dependency is high and skilled labor is in short supply.

• Digital Transformation: Digital technologies are positioned as a critical solution for improving productivity and reducing costs. The report emphasizes the need for the construction industry to adopt digital tools and data-driven approaches to remain competitive.

• Digital Integration: Digital integration across the entire cost life-cycle model is presented as a key enabler for efficiency, including the use of BIM (Building Information Modeling), virtual reality, and modular construction techniques.

Key Markets and Trends

U.S. and Canada

• New York, Toronto, and eight U.S. cities are now included in the cost comparison, representing six of the top 10 cities.
• The U.S. dollar's strength is influencing the positioning of cities in the index, with North American cities generally appearing more expensive compared to others.

Asia-Pacific

• China: Construction demand is expected to grow at 6% in 2018 and 5% in 2019, driven by economic rebalancing and the One Belt, One Road initiative. However, growth is slowing compared to previous years.
• Hong Kong: Construction growth is expected to be 2% per year until 2021, with infrastructure and residential sectors as main drivers.
• Singapore: Growth is expected to be relatively slow due to a mature market, but the government is promoting modular construction to increase productivity.
• Australia: The construction sector is forecast to grow by over 1% in 2018, rising to 3% by 2020. Low interest rates and a weak Australian dollar are supporting private investment.

India

• The construction sector is expected to grow by more than 50% over the next decade, driven by urbanization and industrial development.
• The 2017 demonetization policy had an adverse impact on construction output, but long-term policy initiatives are expected to support growth.

Europe

• The European construction industry is expected to grow at 2% to 2.5% per year until 2021, with infrastructure investment being a key driver.
• United Kingdom: Despite Brexit uncertainty, the economy is performing well, with construction output at a historical peak. However, labor shortages and high costs remain a challenge.
• Germany: A record current account surplus and full employment are indicators of a strong economy, but constrained infrastructure investment could limit long-term growth.
• France: Construction growth is expected to remain relatively flat, with the residential and non-residential building sectors likely to be subdued due to high unemployment.
• Netherlands: The economy is expected to grow by 3.2% in 2018, with the construction sector set to grow over 5%, supported by diverse infrastructure projects.
• Poland: The construction sector is expected to grow by over 3% in 2018, driven by economic expansion across residential, commercial, and industrial sectors.

Middle East

• UAE: The construction industry remained flat in 2017 due to the introduction of VAT in 2018. The Dubai government announced a 19.5% increase in the state budget, focusing on infrastructure.
• Saudi Arabia: The construction industry maintained a slow course in 2017, but the government's expansionary budget and Vision 2030 initiatives are expected to drive growth. Additional investments in mega-projects like Neom and Qiddiya are set to attract international contractors.
• Qatar: The construction industry is expected to return to growth in late 2018 due to preparations for the 2022 FIFA World Cup and increased LNG output. However, economic sanctions and slowing population growth may lead to real estate oversupply.

Productivity Challenges

• Poor productivity is a common issue across the global construction industry, influenced by traditional in-situ methods, labor dependency, and transactional models.
• High-cost markets like New York, Hong Kong, and London face severe skills shortages, contributing to cost inflation.
• Modular construction and digital integration are being used in some markets to improve productivity and reduce costs.

Digital Solutions

• Digital transformation is seen as a key opportunity for the construction industry to become more efficient and cost-effective.
• Examples include:
  • The use of BIM Level Two Standard and Digital Project Delivery SOP in the Manchester Airport Transformation Program.
  • The development of digital avatars (Personas) to test design options and improve customer outcomes, as seen in the Sydney Metro project.
• The construction sector remains one of the least digitalized, but the potential for digital integration is vast, from design to asset management.

Commodity Prices

• Commodity prices had a strong performance in 2017, with increases in coal, energy, aluminum, iron ore, and copper.
• These price increases contribute to underlying inflation in construction materials, though prices are still relatively low compared to the 2008–2012 period.
• The U.S. dollar's strength in 2017 influenced the cost competitiveness of various markets, with weaker currencies facing higher price inflation.

Currency Impact

• The U.S. dollar's performance against global currencies in 2017 affected construction costs.
• Markets with weaker currencies (e.g., the U.K.) experienced higher inflation due to the strong dollar.
• For overseas investors, local currency depreciation can make construction cheaper, but returns on existing investments may be affected by exchange rate movements.

Methodology

• The report is based on a survey of construction costs in 50 global cities, covering 13 building types.
• Costs are based on local specifications and converted into a common currency (U.S. dollar), with London as the benchmark (costs = 100).
• The data is current as of Q4 2017, with exchange rates updated as of November 30, 2017.

Conclusion

• As the global economy grows, construction costs are expected to rise in many cities.
• Digital transformation is crucial for addressing these challenges and improving productivity.
• The construction industry must embrace digital tools and data integration to meet the demands of growing economies and ensure long-term competitiveness.