2017国际工程造价报告（英文版）-3mb

International Construction Costs 2017: Cost Certainty in an Uncertain World

Core Content Overview

This report provides an analysis of construction costs in 44 major global cities and highlights the broader trends in commodities and currencies that influence these costs. It emphasizes the challenges of achieving cost certainty in a volatile global environment, where political, economic and market shifts are impacting the construction industry significantly.

Main Points

• Construction Costs Are High and Unpredictable:

  • Major cities such as London, New York, and Singapore remain among the most expensive locations for construction.
  • The report notes that construction costs in these cities are influenced by a complex mix of factors including local regulations, labor shortages, and currency fluctuations.

• Global Economic Slowdown and Resource Economies:

  • A slowdown in global growth, particularly in China and resource economies like Brazil and Saudi Arabia, is affecting construction market dynamics.
  • This has led to a reduction in construction inflation in some cities, such as Dubai, Singapore, and Hong Kong.

• Commodity Trends:

  • Commodity prices remained low in 2016, helping to control input costs in the construction industry.
  • A mini-recovery in industrial commodities since October 2016 has been noted, with a 15% increase in the past four months.
  • Crude oil prices are expected to rise significantly over the next five years, with forecasts suggesting they will reach around $60 per barrel by 2018.

• Currency Trends:

  • The US dollar has strengthened against major global currencies, particularly the British pound, which fell by about 15% post-Brexit.
  • The depreciation of the Chinese yuan and Indian rupee against the dollar has had a notable impact on construction costs and trade.
  • The strength of the dollar has affected the cost competitiveness of other markets, especially in Europe and Asia.

• Key Construction Projects:

  • The report identifies the top ten most expensive construction projects in 2017, including the One Belt, One Road (OBOR) initiative, Dubai Al Maktoum Airport, and the Grand Paris Express.
  • These projects are significant in terms of their economic and strategic importance, and many rely on public-private partnership (PPP) models for funding.

Regional Market Trends

Americas

• The US construction market has continued to grow despite a slowdown in the oil and gas sector and a slight rise in interest rates.
• The housing market is still a bright spot, though growth remains below pre-crisis levels.
• New York remains the most expensive city for construction, with costs up to 50% higher than other major cities.
• The report suggests that alternative procurement methods like design-build and construction management are becoming more important to manage costs in dense urban environments.

Asia

• China's shift away from an investment-driven economy is impacting Asian markets that have historically benefited from Chinese inward investment.
• Growth in construction markets across the region has slowed, with expansion rates expected to be around 5-7% per year.
• Singapore and Hong Kong have seen significant stabilization in their construction markets, with Singapore's market expected to remain stable due to continued public sector activity.
• The One Belt, One Road (OBOR) initiative is a major driver of construction investment in Asia, with a total value of $150 billion and a 13-year program lifespan.

Australia & Pacific

• Construction markets in Australia are affected by the slowdown in commodity prices, but infrastructure and housing markets in New South Wales and Victoria remain strong.
• Melbourne is ranked 14th globally, up one place from the previous year, due to increased public and private construction activity.
• High construction costs are attributed to Australia's geographic isolation and limited private sector competition.

Europe

• The Eurozone's recovery in 2016 was weak, with growth rates of 1.5% in 2015 and expected growth of 2.6% in 2017.
• Political uncertainty, including upcoming elections and referendums in key EU countries, adds to the complexity of the market.
• Frankfurt is expected to benefit from the relocation of companies from London to the EU post-Brexit.
• London's ranking has dropped from second to fourth due to the devaluation of the pound, which has increased the cost of imported materials and affected project affordability.

Conclusion and Recommendations

• Cost Certainty Is Vital:

  • The report underscores the importance of cost certainty in an uncertain world, especially as construction projects are increasingly affected by political, economic and market volatility.
  • Access to reliable data and market insight, combined with effective project management, is crucial for successful delivery.

• Agility and Innovation:

  • Developers and investors must be agile and innovative in their approaches to project procurement, finance and delivery.
  • Modular construction and alternative sourcing strategies may help in managing costs in high-cost urban environments.

• Need for Sustainable Funding Models:

  • The reliance on PPP models and other non-federal funding sources is expected to grow, particularly in Europe and Asia.
  • The challenge of maintaining investor confidence in the face of economic and political uncertainty is critical to the long-term health of construction markets.