德银-亚洲-信贷市场-亚洲定期估值快报-20180202-27页_1mb

Asia Credit: RAVE - Regular Asia Valuation Express

Date: 2 February 2018

Core Content Overview

This report provides a comprehensive analysis of the Asia credit market, focusing on valuation trends, performance metrics, and new issuance data for both Investment Grade (IG) and High Yield (HY) bonds, as well as sovereign and quasi-sovereign debt instruments. It includes insights from Deutsche Bank and Bloomberg Finance LP, highlighting key performance indicators, relative value charts, and recent market activity.

Main Points

1. Out/Under Performers

• The report includes a list of the top 15 out/underperformers based on 1-month total returns.
• The data is as of 30 January 2018.

2. Fundamentals vs. Valuations

• Sr. Debt: Gross Non-Performing Loans (NPLs) vs. Z-spread
• Sub Debt: Total Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR) vs. Yield to Worst (YTW)
• The data includes only bonds of listed companies, with pricing as of 30 January 2018.

3. Relative Value Charts – Sovereigns & Quasis

• 10Y Quasis vs. Sovereign benchmarks
• 30Y Quasis vs. Sovereign benchmarks
• Quasi Sovereigns vs. Spread-to-maturity benchmarks
• Sovereign 5Y CDS, YTD
• The data is as of 30 January 2018, sourced from Markit and Deutsche Bank.

4. Relative Value Charts – IG Corporates

• HK/China IG: Gross Leverage vs. YTW
• India IG: Gross Leverage vs. YTW
• Korea IG: Gross Leverage vs. YTW
• Malay/Thai IG: Gross Leverage vs. YTW
• The data is as of 30 January 2018, with only listed company bonds included.

5. Relative Value Charts – HY Corporates

• HY China prop: Gross Leverage vs. YTW
• Other HY (excl. China prop): Gross Leverage vs. YTW
• The data is as of 30 January 2018.

6. USD Bonds Index Performance

• Asia IG vs. US IG
• Asia HY vs. US HY
• Asia IG vs. EUR IG
• Asia HY vs. EUR HY
• US IG vs. EM IG
• US HY vs. EM HY
• Asia A vs. Asia BBB
• Asia BB vs. Asia B
• The data is as of 29 January 2018.

7. USD & EUR Bonds New Issues Performance Monitor

• Asia ex-Japan new issuance IG/HY
• Total new issuance by region (YTD 2018)
• Asia IG issuance by sector (YTD 2018)
• Asia IG issuance by country (YTD 2018)
• Asia HY issuance by sector (YTD 2018)
• Asia HY issuance by country (YTD 2018)
• The data is sourced from Bloomberg Finance LP.

8. Earnings Calendar

• A list of companies reporting earnings in February 2018, including:
  • Confirmed/Estimated dates for various companies.
  • Highlights include: Alibaba Group, LG Uplus Corp, Indian Overseas Bank, and others.
• The data is as of 29 January 2018.

9. Research Catalogue

• Recent reports and analyses include:
  • Asia Credit: News & views over the holidays (2-Jan-18)
  • Swire Properties Limited: New issue thoughts (3-Jan-18)
  • Xinjiang Guanghui: Initiate on GUANGH 7.875% 2020s with Buy (4-Jan-18)
  • CITIC Ltd: New issue thoughts (4-Jan-18)
  • Global Logistic Properties: Moody's keeps IG, Buy the 2025s (5-Jan-18)
  • Longfor Properties Co. Ltd: Our new issue thoughts (8-Jan-18)
  • Sumitomo Mitsui FG: New issue thoughts (9-Jan-18)
  • Country Garden: New issue thoughts (9-Jan-18)
  • Asia Credit: Select Chinese/HK AT1s undervalued: buy POSABK, ICBC Asia & Cinda (10-Jan-18)
  • Asia Credit: Indian banks recap gets more traction: going Neutral (11-Jan-18)
  • Asia Credit Strategy: The last hurrah in Beijing (11-Jan-18)
  • Asia Credit: Monday Tidbits - Corporate pulse from China (15-Jan-18)
  • Adani Transmission: Potential fallen angel, but it shouldn't fall (15-Jan-18)
  • Asia Credit: Japanese lifers: overlooked & valuable - Buy NIPLIF c27s and DAIL c26s (16-Jan-18)
• The reports are authored by various analysts including Karen Kwan, Viacheslav Shilin, and Vikash Agarwalla.

Key Information

• Valuation Metrics: Z-spread, YTW, NPLs, CAR, T-spreads, and YTM are used to assess bond performance.
• Performance Comparison: The report compares Asia's IG and HY bonds with US, EUR, and EM counterparts.
• New Issue Monitor: Details on the issuance of USD and EUR bonds by region, sector, and country, with information on issue yield, spread, and price changes.
• Earnings Calendar: Provides reporting dates and status (confirmed/estimated/tentative) for major companies in the region.
• Research Highlights: Focus on specific sectors and companies, offering investment recommendations and market insights.

Analysts

• Vikash Agarwalla, CFA: Research Analyst
• Viacheslav Shilin, MBA: Research Analyst
• Karen Kwan, MBA: Research Analyst
• Franco Lam: Research Analyst

Summary

The report offers a detailed overview of the Asia credit market, including performance analysis, valuation comparisons, and new issuance data. It emphasizes the importance of fundamental metrics such as leverage, capital adequacy, and NPLs in evaluating bond valuations. Investment insights are provided for various sectors and countries, with a focus on identifying undervalued opportunities and tracking market trends. The data is current as of January 2018, with a particular emphasis on USD and EUR bonds.