2025-06-10-花旗集团-发那科（6954）_发那科（6954.T）2025财年第一季度北美机器人需求_韧性是关键_11页_336kb

Flash: Fanuc Q1 North American Robot Demand

Key Highlights:

• Market Resilience: North American robot orders increased 15% YoY to $581mn, driven by auto OEMs despite non-auto sectors contraction.
• Fanuc Dominance: Holds ~50% North American robot market share; Q1 NA sales decreased 14% YoY to $233mn.
• Product Mix: Higher ASP ($64.1k/unit) amid cobot demand (7% of total) but overall unit volume stable.
• Forward Outlook: Citi maintains "Buy" rating with ¥4,500 (25x FY3/26E cash-adjusted multiple) relative to historical averages.
• Forward Valuation: Target EV/EBITDA of 18x vs 6-year avg (19x); PBR of 2.4x vs 2.7x average.
• Critical Risks:
  • Tariff-driven manufacturing slowdown, especially in China.
  • EV penetration impact on machine tools, competition from Chinese suppliers, and robot demand volatility.
  • Supply chain challenges and potential share erosion in China.

Analyst Note:

• Commentary on evolving auto capex, semiconductor demand, and tariff impacts.
• Suggests appraisal of forward guidance due to persistent earnings gaps vs consensus, and limited capital return progress.