20241027-国联证券-美国大选深度观察_大选不确定性较高或利好避险类资产_59页_3mb

Election Uncertainty Positively Correlates with Safe Asset Performance
The 2024 U.S. election is closely contested, with Kamala Harris slightly leading Donald Trump in national polls but roughly equal probabilities in swing states, potentially leading to a highly competitive outcome. The unpredictable election outcome may favor safe-haven assets like gold amid heightened uncertainty and political risks.

Kamala Harris’s Economic Policies Aim to Appeal to Voters
Harris’s economic agenda focuses on reducing costs in food, housing, healthcare, and childcare to create an "economy of opportunity." Key proposals include price controls on essential goods, incentives for homebuyers, and expanded childcare benefits. However, her inflation-controlling measures, such as price regulations, face theoretical skepticism, raising questions about their effectiveness.

Trump’s Policies Emphasize Tax Cuts, Tariffs, and Traditional Energy
Trump’s policies prioritize domestic tax cuts, global tariffs, migration restrictions, and support for fossil fuels. His stance risks escalating trade tensions, particularly with China, but the likelihood of imposing a 60% tariff on all Chinese goods remains low (around 25%). Such extreme measures could harm U.S. economic interests and foment global trade friction.

Swing Voters Are Key Determinants of Election Outcomes
Approximately 300,000 marginal swing voters (mostly minorities and young adults) in swing states, such as Pennsylvania and Michigan, may decide the election. The traditional reliance on the manufacturing sector, particularly among blue-collar workers, remains a focal point for Trump's appeal.

Increased Government Spending in Election Years
Federal expenditures rise during election years, particularly under Democratic presidents, due to policies like pressuring the Federal Reserve for lower interest rates to stimulate employment. Historically, safer assets like gold exhibit significant returns during election years, reflecting heightened uncertainty.

Key Risks
The election carries risks of unforeseen black swan events, sudden U.S. economic downturns due to high interest rates, and escalating geopolitical tensions, all of which could disrupt market stability and asset performance.

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