世界银行-越南区域投资_挑战与机遇（英）_37页_2mb

Summary of Challenges and Opportunities in Vietnam's Public Investment Management

Current Trends and Ambitions

• Development Goals: Vietnam aims to achieve upper-middle-income status by 2030 and high-income status by 2045, requiring public investment to reach 7-7.3% of GDP over 2021-2030.
• Current Level: Public investment has declined from 8% of GDP in 2011 to 6% in 2022, with inefficiencies persisting despite fiscal space due to debt ratio of 35.7% (under 60%).
• Infrastructure Lag: Vietnam ranks 77 out of 141 countries in infrastructure quality (WEF 2019), behind peers, impacting FDI attractiveness and productivity.

Key Public Investment Inefficiencies

1. Allocative Inefficiencies:
   • Over-Investment: Provinces invest in low-value projects (e.g., small airports, ports, industrial parks) leading to stranded assets with limited occupancy.
   • Under-Investment in Critical Areas: Shortchanging climate resilience and environmental protection (e.g., coastal defense, only 0.05% GDP allocated to disaster protection).
   • Strategic Bias: National backbone infrastructure (e.g., expressways) receives a declining share of capital budgets, reducing inter-provincial connectivity.
2. Technical & Operational Issues:
   • Project Implementation Delays: Average delays of 5 years, cost overruns averaging 2x original cost, illustrating persistent execution gaps (77% budget execution vs. global benchmarks).
   • Land Acquisition & Procurement: Fragmented systems, limited competitive bidding, extending timelines and increasing costs.
   • Maintenance Deficits: Roads receive only 35-45% budget needed, shortening asset life and undermining economic returns.

Institutional Framework Weaknesses

• IGF Inadequacies:
  • High decentralization with provincial governments controlling ~85% of public investment, limiting central government oversight.
  • Lack of Fiscal Coordination: Unconditional transfers fragment regional projects, preventing use of conditional transfers for shared priorities like climate adaptation.
  • Legal Ambiguities: Draft State Budget Law & Public Investment Law lack role definitions for vertical and horizontal coordination.
• PIM Failures:
  • Ineffective Review Processes: Feasibility studies omit quantifying financial/social returns, enabling poor prioritization.
  • Lack of Regional Linkages: Provincial incentives discourage collaboration; no mechanism to enforce implementation of cross-border projects.

Recommendations

1. Strengthen Vertical Coordination:
   • Institutionalize co-financing, matching grants, and clearer inter-governmental fiscal frameworks (e.g., amend State Budget Law).
   • Establish quasi-regional budgets through pilot Public Investment Programs.
2. Enhance Horizontal Cooperation:
   • Develop province-province partnerships with cost-sharing mechanisms.
   • Adopt multi-level fiscal transfers (e.g., ecological fiscal transfers) to incentivize regional collaboration.
3. Improve Planning & Execution:
   • Link national/regional masterplans to MTIPs, ensure independent reviews, simplify project appraisal methodologies.
   • Digitize asset registries and institutionalize scheduled portfolio reviews for ongoing projects.
4. Green Transition & Climate Adaptation:
   • Integrate climate-resilience into IGF mechanisms, quantify regional adaptation costs (e.g. USD 4 billion by 2035).
5. Conduct Efficiency Review:
   • Perform a Public Investment Efficiency Review to assess technical/allocative inefficiencies like ICOR ratios and prioritize green investments.

Contextual Notes

• Vietnam's institutional design diverges significantly from global norms (OECD, UCLG Subnational Finance synthesis), requiring customized reforms borrowing widely from international best practices (e.g., Austria's policy platforms or China's PES schemes).
• The document serves as an initiator for deeper analysis, focusing reform actions structured around OECD’s "Recommendations on Effective Public Investment".