世界银行：越南清洁贸易的挑战与机遇_78页_2mb

报告摘要

Summary of "NO TIME TO WASTE: The challenges and opportunities of cleaner trade for Vietnam"

Core Content

This report analyzes the economic and environmental implications of cleaner trade for Vietnam, emphasizing the urgency of adapting to climate change and the potential for trade to support sustainable development. It outlines the country's recent economic developments, the impact of the global pandemic, and the challenges and opportunities associated with greening trade.

Main Economic Developments and Prospects

1. Global and Domestic Economic Recovery

The global economy rebounded in 2021 with a 5.5% growth, but faces uncertainty due to emerging variants of the pandemic and ongoing risks.
Vietnam's GDP growth in 2021 was estimated at 2.58%, significantly lower than the World Bank's initial projection.
The country's economic recovery was hampered by the April 2021 outbreak, which led to prolonged lockdowns and a 6% GDP contraction in Q3-2021.
The government shifted from a "No-COVID-19" policy to a "Living with COVID-19" approach in late 2021, supported by a national vaccination effort that saw 75% of the population receiving one dose and 55% fully vaccinated by mid-December 2021.

2. Impact on the Labor Market

The April 2021 outbreak caused significant labor market disruption, with 28.2 million workers affected, including a 2.5 million job loss and a record unemployment rate of 3.7%.
Informal workers, household businesses, and women were particularly vulnerable.
Regional disparities were evident, with the Southeast region experiencing the largest job losses and migrant worker outflows.

3. Business Performance and Confidence

Business closures were high in Ho Chi Minh City (35%), with 57% of remaining businesses reducing operating hours.
Overall sales fell by 39% during September–November 2021 compared to 2019 levels.
Business confidence started to recover in late 2021, aided by government support policies.

4. External Economic Position

International reserves increased by $12.3 billion since December 2020, reaching $107.7 billion by September 2021.
The current account surplus deteriorated from 4.6% of GDP in 2020 to a deficit of 1% in 2021 due to rising import growth and service export constraints.
The financial account is expected to offset the current account deficit with large short-term capital inflows and resilient FDI.

5. Monetary and Fiscal Policies

The State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) maintained an accommodative monetary policy, resulting in subdued inflation (1.84%) despite rapid credit expansion.
Fiscal policy was contractionary most of the year, with a budget surplus of 4.8% of GDP in 2021, but a deficit of 1.8% of GDP was recorded in the final months of the year due to delayed public investment and tax deferrals.
The debt-to-GDP ratio is estimated at 57.3% in 2021, well below the 68% ceiling set by the National Assembly.

6. Economic Outlook

Vietnam's GDP is projected to rebound to 5.5% in 2022 and stabilize at around 6.5% thereafter.
Risks include renewed pandemic flare-ups, slower growth in major export markets (U.S. at 3.8%, China at 5.1%), and reduced policy support from major economies.
Authorities are advised to take proactive measures to manage these risks.

Challenges and Opportunities of Cleaner Trade

1. Vulnerability of Exports to Climate Change

Vietnam's export sectors—industry and agriculture—are highly vulnerable to climate change, particularly due to their location in coastal lowlands and deltas.
About one-third of industrial parks face annual risks of flooding and tropical storms.
The agriculture sector contributes 13.2% to exports and is especially sensitive to climate change, such as rising temperatures.

2. Contribution of Trade to Carbon Emissions

The trade sector contributes significantly to Vietnam's carbon footprint, particularly through emissions-intensive products.
A comparison of production and export CO2 emissions (2005–2015) highlights the need for greening trade to reduce environmental impact.

3. Impact of Global Climate Policies on Vietnam's Trade

The EU Green Deal and Border Carbon Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) are expected to affect Vietnam's exports to the EU, particularly in emission-intensive industries.
The CBAM could increase export costs for Vietnam, especially in sectors like steel and cement, unless the country adopts greener production practices.

4. Opportunities for Vietnam in Green Trade

Green trade can catalyze technological adaptation, create new jobs, and enhance Vietnam's comparative advantage.
Vietnam has opportunities in renewable energy, particularly in solar panels and offshore wind supply chains.
The country's trade in environmental goods is growing, with a 6.5% share in total exports, and key destinations include the EU, the U.S., and other developed markets.

5. Comparative Advantage in Green Products

Vietnam has a comparative advantage in producing and exporting environmental goods, especially in renewable energy.
The report suggests that new opportunities exist in green product development and export, which align with the country's long-term goal of becoming a high-income economy by 2045.

Policy Recommendations

Fiscal Support: Increase fiscal support to cushion the impact of the pandemic on households and informal workers, especially through social safety nets and health and education spending.
Accelerate Public Investment: Use cash reserves and streamline administrative procedures to speed up public investment implementation, particularly in infrastructure and human capital.
Financial Sector Reform: Strengthen prudential supervision and NPL resolution frameworks, including loan restructuring, legal recovery, and insolvency regimes.
Adopt Green Trade Practices: Transition to greener production and trade practices to reduce carbon emissions and align with international climate policies like the EU Green Deal and CBAM.
Enhance Social Protection: Conduct a full review of social protection programs to improve targeting and efficiency, and develop an electronic database to unify beneficiary registration and service delivery.
Leverage Basle II Rules: Push for the adoption of Basle II capital rules for all operating banks to improve financial stability.

Key Figures and Tables

Figure 1.1: Economic growth in 2021
Figure 1.2: Share of people vaccinated against COVID-19, Vietnam compared to selected countries
Figure 1.3: COVID-19 vaccination and case fatality rates
Figure 1.4: Mobility trends
Figure 1.5: Daily new cases and new deaths
Figure 1.6: Economic activity and restrictive measures
Figure 1.7: GDP and sector growth
Figure 1.8: Sectoral contribution to growth
Figure 1.9: Contribution to GDP growth by expenditure, 2017–2021
Figure 1.10: Contribution to GDP growth by expenditure, 2006–2020
Figure 1.11: Labor market
Figure 1.12: Firm change in sales relative to 2019
Figure 1.13: Financial indicators
Figure 1.14: Firm entry and exit
Figure 1.15: International reserve accumulation
Figure 1.16: Current account decomposition
Figure 1.17: Merchandise Trade Balance
Figure 1.18: Financial account decomposition
Figure 1.19: Exports by product
Figure 1.20: Exports by destination
Figure 1.21: Foreign direct investment commitment and disbursement
Figure 1.22: FDI commitment by sector
Figure 1.23: Consumer price index
Figure 1.24: Producer price indexes
Figure 1.25: Merchandise import price indexes
Figure 1.26: Exchange rate evolution
Figure 1.27: Credit growth
Figure 1.28: Deposits at credit institutions
Figure 1.29: Aggregate budget execution
Figure 2.1: Emission intensity in manufacturing, 2019
Figure 2.2: Emission-intensive (and non-emission-intensive) products
Figure 2.3: Impacts of the EU Green Deal and CBAM by sector in Vietnam's exports to the EU
Figure 2.4: Impacts of the CBAM on total exports by EU partners and carbon intensity of exports to the EU
Figure 2.5: Vietnam's trade in environmental goods
Figure 2.6: Vietnam's share of environmental goods exports in total exports
Figure 2.7: Vietnam's top destinations for environmental goods exports
Figure 2.8: Vietnam's top sources for environmental goods imports
Figure 2.9: Exports of environmental products
Figure 2.10: Imports of environmental products
Figure 2.11: Environmental products exports—within the renewable energy category
Table 1.1: Fiscal measures in 2020 and 2021 (Planned and Implemented)
Table 1.2: Selected economic indicators, Vietnam, 2019–2023
Table 2.1: Comparison of production and export CO2 emissions, 2005–2015

Conclusion

Cleaner trade presents significant opportunities for Vietnam to align with global climate commitments, enhance its comparative advantage, and support sustainable economic growth. However, it also poses challenges, particularly in terms of adapting to new trade policies like the EU's CBAM, reducing carbon emissions, and improving the resilience of its trade and industrial sectors. Proactive fiscal and financial sector reforms, along with strategic investment in green technologies and infrastructure, are essential to ensure Vietnam can benefit from the transition to a low-carbon economy.

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