2025-06-29-IEA-2025年石油市场6月报比较分析（英）_18页_465kb

IEF Comparative Analysis of Monthly Oil Market Reports Summary

Core Content Overview

This document provides a comparative analysis of the 2024–2026 oil demand and supply forecasts from three major agencies: the International Energy Forum (IEF), the International Energy Agency (IEA), and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), alongside the Energy Information Administration (EIA). It highlights the divergence and convergence in forecasts across these agencies and the implications for global oil markets.

Key Demand Forecasts

• Global Oil Demand Growth:

  • OPEC forecasts a 1.3 mb/d increase in both 2025 and 2026.
  • IEA projects a 0.7 mb/d increase for both years, slightly lower than OPEC's estimate.
  • EIA forecasts 0.8 mb/d for 2025 and 1.1 mb/d for 2026, showing a slight upward revision in 2026.
  • The forecast gap between OPEC and IEA reaches up to 0.6 mb/d for both years.

• OECD Demand:

  • IEA forecasts a modest decline of -0.1 mb/d in 2025 and -0.2 mb/d in 2026.
  • OPEC and EIA show flat to modest growth in OECD demand for both years.

• Non-OECD Demand:

  • IEA projects 0.8 mb/d growth in 2025 and 1.0 mb/d in 2026.
  • OPEC forecasts 1.1 mb/d in 2025 and 1.2 mb/d in 2026.
  • EIA forecasts 0.9 mb/d for both years, with OECD demand showing a slight downward trend.

Key Supply Forecasts

• Non-OPEC Supply and OPEC NGLs:

  • IEA forecasts 1.5 mb/d growth in 2025 and 1.1 mb/d in 2026.
  • OPEC forecasts 1.3 mb/d in 2025 and 0.7 mb/d in 2026.
  • EIA forecasts 1.3 mb/d in 2025 and 0.7 mb/d in 2026.

• Non-DoC Supply and DoC NGLs:

  • IEA forecasts 1.3 mb/d in 2025 and 1.0 mb/d in 2026.
  • OPEC forecasts 0.9 mb/d in 2025 and 0.9 mb/d in 2026.
  • EIA forecasts 1.3 mb/d in 2025 and 0.7 mb/d in 2026.

• Call on OPEC:

  • IEA forecasts a -0.7 mb/d growth in 2025 and -0.3 mb/d in 2026.
  • OPEC forecasts 0.4 mb/d in 2025 and 0.1 mb/d in 2026.
  • EIA forecasts -0.5 mb/d in 2025 and 0.3 mb/d in 2026.

• Call on DoC Crude:

  • IEA forecasts a -0.6 mb/d growth in 2025 and -0.3 mb/d in 2026.
  • OPEC forecasts 0.4 mb/d in 2025 and 0.4 mb/d in 2026.
  • EIA forecasts -0.5 mb/d in 2025 and 0.4 mb/d in 2026.

Main Views and Insights

• Demand Growth:

  • Non-OECD countries are the main drivers of global oil demand growth, with IEA and EIA showing more conservative estimates than OPEC.
  • The IEA has revised its 2025 demand forecast downward due to weaker-than-expected deliveries in the US and China.
  • The EIA revised its 2026 demand forecast upward by ~0.1 mb/d.

• Supply Growth:

  • Non-OPEC supply and OPEC NGLs show robust growth across all three agencies, though EIA has significantly revised its supply growth forecasts downward in 2026.
  • Non-DoC supply and DoC NGLs are expected to grow by ~1.3 mb/d in 2025 and ~0.7 mb/d in 2026.
  • The IEA and OPEC forecasts for US supply growth show notable differences, with IEA forecasting 0.5 mb/d and OPEC forecasting 0.9 mb/d.

• Convergence and Divergence:

  • There is a clear divergence in forecasts between OPEC and IEA for global demand and supply.
  • The EIA is showing greater convergence with OPEC in some areas, particularly in non-DoC supply forecasts.
  • IEA is the only agency providing forecasts for global stock changes.

Key Information

• IEA projects global oil demand to rise by 0.7 mb/d in both 2025 and 2026.
• OPEC maintains a stronger outlook for global demand, projecting 1.3 mb/d growth for both years.
• EIA forecasts global demand to grow by 0.8 mb/d in 2025 and 1.1 mb/d in 2026.
• Non-OECD demand is expected to grow more than OECD demand, with OPEC and IEA showing similar growth.
• Non-OPEC supply is projected to grow by ~1.3–1.5 mb/d in 2025 and ~0.7–1.1 mb/d in 2026.
• OPEC forecasts non-DoC supply to grow by ~0.9 mb/d in both years, while IEA and EIA show slightly different estimates.
• Call on DoC crude is expected to remain stable or slightly declining in both years, with IEA and EIA showing negative growth.
• OECD demand is projected to decline in 2025 and remain stable in 2026, according to IEA.
• The EIA has revised its 2025 supply growth forecast downward and 2026 forecast upward, showing greater convergence with OPEC in non-DoC supply.
• IEA and OPEC forecasts for US supply growth are notably different, with IEA forecasting 0.5 mb/d and OPEC forecasting 0.9 mb/d.
• IEA is the only agency providing forecasts for global stock changes.

Conclusion

The IEF comparative analysis reveals significant divergence in oil demand and supply forecasts among OPEC, IEA, and EIA. Non-OECD regions are the primary contributors to global oil demand growth, while non-OPEC supply and OPEC NGLs show robust growth. EIA has shown a greater convergence with OPEC in non-DoC supply forecasts, but IEA continues to project more conservative demand growth. IEA and OPEC show different perspectives on US supply growth, highlighting the uncertainty in the global oil market. The forecast gaps between agencies remain a key factor in understanding market dynamics and policy implications.