2014年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Guinea_Requests_for_Disbursement_Under_the_Rapid_Credit_Facility_and_For_Modification_of_Performance_Criteria_Under_the_Extended_Credit_Facility_Arrangement_64页_1mb

Guinea: IMF Disbursement Request and Performance Criteria Modification

Core Content Overview

Guinea is requesting financial assistance from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to address the economic impact of the Ebola outbreak, which has caused a significant disruption in the country's growth and public finances. The request includes a disbursement under the Rapid Credit Facility (RCF) and a modification of performance criteria (PCs) under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) arrangement.

Main Points

Economic Impact of the Ebola Outbreak

• The Ebola outbreak has intensified since July 2014 and is expected to continue for 6-9 months.
• It has led to a negative impact on 2014 GDP growth, projected at 2.4% (down from 4.5% initially).
• The outbreak has disrupted commerce, services, and agriculture, with reduced production and activity.
• Inflation is projected to rise to 9.4% by year-end, above the program target.
• Poverty is expected to increase, especially among vulnerable groups.
• Mining production remains unaffected, but new projects may face delays.

Balance of Payments and Exchange Rate

• The exchange rate has depreciated by over 2% in August 2014.
• International reserves are projected to fall from 3.7 months of imports to 3.2 months due to the external financing gap of US$129 million.
• The outbreak is not due to donor withdrawal, but rather a sudden exogenous shock, and is expected to be resolved within one year.

Government Response

• The government has declared a health emergency and is coordinating with international partners.
• The cost of the emergency response plan is estimated at $85 million (1.3% of GDP).
• Monetary policy is being delayed to reduce capital flight and exchange rate volatility.
• The central bank is increasing foreign exchange auction sales to stabilize the currency.

Fiscal Policy Adjustments

• The fiscal deficit is expected to increase to 5.5% of GDP.
• The government is seeking donor financing to cover the gap, including $41.4 million from the IMF.
• Budget support is requested to ensure the emergency response plan is fully funded without compressing public investment.

IMF Support and Program Adjustments

• The IMF has approved a disbursement under the RCF of 25% of quota (SDR 26.775 million or about US$41.4 million).
• The staff supports the modification of performance criteria and indicative targets to reflect the higher fiscal deficit and adjusted net domestic assets.
• The RCF disbursement is considered appropriate due to the transitory nature of the balance of payments shock.

Key Information

• Ebola outbreak has caused a humanitarian and economic crisis, with a significant impact on growth and government revenue.
• The ECF-supported program remains on track, with all PCs met by end-June 2014.
• Structural reforms are progressing, including the submission of a draft law on public enterprises.
• The government's capacity to repay IMF obligations is adequate, with outstanding credit expected to reach 111% of quota.
• The Debt Sustainability Analysis confirms that the new IMF financing will not change Guinea's debt distress rating.

Staff Appraisal

• The staff supports the RCF disbursement and modification of performance criteria.
• They welcome the government's commitment to the ECF-supported program and recommend close dialogue with external partners to ensure the response plan is fully funded.
• The delay in monetary easing is justified by increased capital outflows.
• The central bank's intervention in the foreign exchange market is supported as a temporary measure.

Summary of Requests

• RCF Disbursement: 25% of quota (SDR 26.775 million or about US$41.4 million) as budget support.
• Modification of Performance Criteria: End-September indicative targets and end-December 2014 PCs, including adjustors for external financing shortfalls.

Documents Included

• Staff Report: Prepared by the IMF for the Executive Board on September 19, 2014.
• Press Release: Includes a statement by the Chair of the Executive Board.
• Statement by the Executive Director for Guinea.
• Letter of Intent and Supplement to the Technical Memorandum of Understanding.
• Debt Sustainability Analysis (Appendix II).

Conclusion

The Ebola outbreak has created an urgent fiscal and balance of payments need, and the IMF disbursement under the RCF is deemed appropriate to support the emergency response plan and prevent a sharp decline in international reserves. The ECF program remains on track, with performance criteria being modified to accommodate the economic impact. The government's fiscal and structural reforms are progressing, and the staff supports the adjustments to ensure program sustainability and effective crisis management.