20250720-东亚期货-尿素产业链周报_7页_1mb

Urea Industry Chain Weekly Summary (2025/7/20)

Key Fundamentals

• India's bid prices are far above domestic spot levels, contributing to faster cargo consolidation and inventory reduction of 7.5% to 89.55 million tons.
• Enterprise inventories decreased by 280,000 tons from the June high, driven by accelerated export order execution, easing stock pressure in Shandong and Hebei production areas.
• Daily production remains high at approximately 200,000 tons, with postponed maintenance in Shanxi and new capacity additions increasing supply strain.
• Compound fertilizer opening rates are at yearly lows, with weak demand from agricultural and industrial sectors.

Market Viewpoint

Supply and demand remain weak, but the market is expected to oscillate and slightly strengthen due to export expectations and cost supports. However, high production levels and subdued domestic demand limit potential rebounds. Factors to monitor include policy implementations and the pace of fallow season preparations.