20180611-凯基证券亚洲-Investment_Daily_5页_222kb

Market Summary

Core Market Indicators

Key Market Trends

• HSI fell 554 points on 8 Jun, closing at 30,958, indicating a bearish trend.
• HSCEI declined by 242 points on 8 Jun, closing at 12,165.
• Market Turnover for HSI was HK$99.8 billion on 8 Jun, showing reduced trading activity.
• Chow Tai Fook (1929) reported FY2018 net profit of HK$4.1 billion, slightly below market expectations, and a share price drop of 7.6% to HK$10.24.
• China Gas (0384) was downgraded by a broker, leading to a 7.7% drop.
• US stock market closed higher, with the Dow and Nasdaq rising 75 and 10 points respectively.
• Investor attention is on the US-North Korea Summit and central bank interest rate meetings.

Technical Analysis

Hang Seng Index (HSI)

• Technical trend remains positive but has weakened.
• RSI is at 52, still above 50, indicating no overbought condition.
• Support levels: 50-day SMA (30,592), 30,000.
• Resistance levels: 31,593, 32,000.
• HSI closed below 31,000, suggesting potential further decline.

HSCEI

• RSI is at 49.5, indicating a bearish trend.
• Support levels: 50-day SMA (12,150), 11,800.
• Resistance levels: 12,500.
• HSCEI closed at 12,165, showing a decline.

Stock Market Activity

Most Actively Traded Stocks (SH-HK Connect Southbound)

• Top stocks by turnover: TENCENT, CCB, CHINA RES BEER, AAC TECH, COUNTRY GARDEN, CHINA SHENHUA, GEELY AUTO, ICBC, FOSUN PHARMA, YANZHOU COAL.
• TENCENT had the highest turnover with 1,512,879,980.
• China State Construction (3311) reported a 21.1% increase in new contracts awarded in the first five months of 2018, reaching HK$52.6 billion.

Most Actively Traded Stocks (SZ-HK Connect Southbound)

• Top stocks by turnover: TENCENT, GENSCRIPT BIO, RONSHINECHINA, KINGDEE INT'L, SUNAC, COUNTRY GARDEN, CM BANK, YUHUA EDU, GREENOWN SER, GOLDWIND.

Short Sell Statistics

• Top short sell stocks include TENCENT, HSCEI ETF, CCB, CSOP A50 ETF, TRACKER FUND, PING AN, PETROCHINA, ISHADES A50, GREATWALL MOTOR, CNOOC.
• TENCENT had the highest short sell volume at 872.40 million HKD.
• HSCEI ETF had the highest short sell ratio at 38.07%.

Economic Calendar Highlights

• US CPI YoY (Tue): Expected at 2.7%, prior at 2.5%.
• US PPI YoY (Wed): Expected at 2.7%, prior at 2.6%.
• FOMC Rate Decision (Thu): Expected to be at 1.75%-2.00%, prior at 1.50%-1.75%.
• Euro Zone Industrial Production SA MoM (Wed): Expected at 0.5%, prior at 0.5%.
• ECB Rate Decision (Thu): Expected, prior not specified.
• China Retail Sales YoY (Fri): Expected at 9.6%, prior at 9.4%.
• US-North Korea Summit (Tue): Expected to influence market sentiment.
• KGI Analysts note that while some stocks like China State Construction may benefit from policy changes, others like Chow Tai Fook are facing challenges due to margin compression and reduced profit growth expectations.

Analyst Notes

• Chow Tai Fook (1929): FY2018 net profit slightly below expectations, but revenue beat. Management is optimistic about consumption sentiment. Expected FY2019 revenue growth at 9.0% and net profit growth at 21.7%, though growth rates will be slower than FY2018.
• China State Construction (3311): Strong new contract awards, but concerns over PPP project receivables. Current valuation at 7.2x P/E with a near 4% dividend yield.
• HSI Technical indicators suggest a positive trend, but with narrowing positive spread and a bearish candlestick, investors should watch for support levels.
• HSCEI Technical indicators show a bearish trend, with RSI at 49.5, and support at 11,800.

Conclusion

The Hong Kong market experienced a decline on 8 Jun, with the HSI and HSCEI both falling. Key stocks like TENCENT and Chow Tai Fook were under pressure, with the latter missing profit expectations. Technical indicators suggest a potential reversal of the positive trend, with support levels and resistance levels playing a crucial role. Investors are closely watching upcoming central bank meetings and major geopolitical events. The SH-HK and SZ-HK Connect saw significant trading activity, with TENCENT leading in volume. Short selling is prevalent, especially for major blue chips. Valuation for China State Construction appears attractive, but Chow Tai Fook's growth outlook is tempered by margin pressures. Overall, the market is expected to trade within a range, with technical levels and upcoming events as key factors influencing direction.