20180719-凯基证券-Investment_Daily_5页_222kb

报告摘要

Market Summary

Core Content

This document provides an overview of the Hong Kong stock market performance, technical indicators, key stock updates, IPO briefs, trading statistics, and economic calendar events for the week of July 16-18, 2018. It also includes insights from KGI analysts on market trends and investment recommendations.

Market Performance

Hang Seng Index (HSI)

HSI on 18 Jul: 28,117, down 64 points from the previous day.
HSCEI on 18 Jul: 10,578, down 13 points.
Market Turnover: HK$76.2 billion on 18 Jul.
Technical Indicators:
- 10-day MA: 28,403
- 50-day MA: 29,919
- 250-day MA: 29,486
- 14-day RSI: 34.8
- Primary Resistance: 28,640
- Primary Support: 28,000
Trend: The HSI opened higher but was capped by the 10-day SMA, closing with a black candlestick. The positive MACD trend narrowed, indicating a weakening technical outlook.

HSI Futures

Jul Futures: 28,080 on 18 Jul, with a volume of 177,506 and open interests of 120,137.
Aug Futures: 28,060 on 18 Jul, with a volume of 2,755 and open interests of 4,471.

Key Stock Updates

Xiaomi (1810.HK)

Stock Performance: Rose 3.11% on 18 Jul, closing at HK$21.55.
Valuation: Expected P/E ratio of 305.6, which is unattractive compared to other China internet and tech giants.
IPO Related: Share over allotment option was fully exercised on 17-Jul-2018.
Analyst View: Due to the Special Stability Trading Period and fading sponsor stabilization, the stock may be more volatile in the near term. Recommendation: Investors should take profit during strength.

Bojun Education (1758.HK)

Company Overview: A private education service provider in Chengdu, Sichuan Province, operating schools and kindergartens.
Revenue Growth:
- FY15: RMB103 million
- FY17: RMB181 million (CAGR: 32.5%)
- 6 months ended 28 Feb 2018: RMB115 million (27.9% YoY increase)
Gross Profit Margin: Decreased to 26.2% for the 6 months ended 28 Feb 2018.
IPO Plan: Intends to establish six new schools, with 95% of net proceeds allocated to this purpose.
Valuation: Historical P/E ratio of 38.8x to 46x, similar to peer TianLi Edu (1773).
Analyst View: Given the relaxation of the One-Child Policy, the private education sector is expected to benefit in the long term. Subscription response and price performance of education stocks were decent, hence a "Subscribe" recommendation.

Trading Statistics

Stock Connect Southbound Trading

SH Connect Balance: RMB51.87 billion (99.8% of quota)
SZ Connect Balance: RMB52.11 billion (100.2% of quota)
Combined Southbound Balance: RMB83.92 billion (99.9% of quota)

Top 10 Most Actively Traded Stocks (Southbound)

Stock Name	Code	Buy Trades (RMB)	Sell Trades (RMB)	Turnover (RMB)
TENCENT	700	86,962,020	448,582,660	535,544,680
GEELY AUTO	175	30,037,240	245,974,510	276,011,750
GREATWALL MOTOR	2333	35,904,235	219,885,160	255,789,395
HUANENG POWER	902	194,669,560	17,667,476	212,337,036
BANK OF CHINA	3988	88,165,710	54,582,290	142,748,000
NCI	1336	35,313,205	107,010,780	142,323,985
CHINA RES BEER	291	109,119,300	18,593,400	127,712,700
SUNAC	1918	63,261,650	44,520,900	107,782,550
CCB	939	77,879,580	20,726,010	98,605,590

Top 10 Most Actively Traded Stocks (Southbound)

Stock Name	Code	Buy Trades (RMB)	Sell Trades (RMB)	Turnover (RMB)
ZTE	763	104,547,316	110,286,980	214,834,296
HUANENG POWER	902	206,851,200	6,913,340	213,764,540
ICBC	1398	109,660	98,626,925	101,334,025
HKEX	388	210,360	117,552,380	117,762,740
CCB	939	1,908,080	114,920,410	116,828,490
3SBIO	1530	54,636,920	49,166,860	103,803,780
NCI	1336	50,338,875	53,460,175	103,799,050
TENCENT	700	40,842,960	61,553,810	102,396,770
CM BANK	3968	2,707,100	98,626,925	101,334,025
GREENOWN SER	2869	46,496,420	31,044,140	77,540,560

Short Sell Statistics

Stock Name	Code	Short Sell (M)	Turnover (B)	Short Sell Ratio (%)
TENCENT	00700.HK	855.75	5.00	17.13
TRACKER FUND	02800.HK	466.47	729.86	63.91
PING AN	02318.HK	427.03	2.07	20.59
CCB	00939.HK	401.29	1.80	22.28
CSOP A50 ETF	02822.HK	345.15	624.33	55.28
AIA	01299.HK	244.31	960.11	25.45
ISHARES A50	02823.HK	230.39	504.27	45.69
AAC TECH	02018.HK	222.88	1.19	18.73
SUNNY OPTICAL	02382.HK	199.93	1.23	16.24
SINOPEC CORP	00386.HK	166.33	587.59	28.31

Economic Calendar Highlights

Date	Country	Event	Survey	Prior
Mon	Euro Zone	May. Trade Balance SA	-	18.1B
Mon	China	Q2 GDP YoY	-	6.7%
Mon	China	Jun. Retail Sales YoY	8.9%	8.5%
Mon	China	Jun. Industrial Production YoY	6.5%	6.8%
Mon	China	First Six Months Fixed Assets Investment Ex Rural	6.0%	6.1%
Tue	US	Jun. Industrial Production MoM	0.6%	-0.1%
Wed	US	Jun. Housing Starts	1325K	1350K
Wed	US	Jun. Building Permits	1323K	1301K
Wed	Euro Zone	Jun. CPI YoY	-	1.9%
Wed	Hong Kong	Vinda (3331) Interim Result	-	-
Thu	US	Initial Jobless Claims (Till Jul 14)	-	-
Thu	US	Continuing Jobless Claims (Till Jul 7)	-	-
Thu	US	U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book	-	-
Fri	Euro Zone	May. ECB Current Account SA	-	28.4B

Key Points and Recommendations

HSI Technical Outlook: The index is expected to trade between 28,000 and 28,400. The technical trend has turned weak, with the first support at 28,000.
Xiaomi: Valuation is unattractive, and the stock may be more volatile in the near term. Recommendation: Take profit during strength.
Bojun Education: Strong revenue growth and potential for expansion, with a "Subscribe" recommendation due to the long-term benefits of the One-Child Policy relaxation.
Market Sentiment: Mixed with some positive factors from the US market, but Hong Kong market momentum remains weak due to thin trading and RMB weakness.
Investor Caution: Investors should be cautious about short-selling activity and market volatility.

Disclaimer

The information and opinions in this report are for informational purposes only and are subject to change without notice. KGI Asia Ltd. does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the data and does not accept liability for any losses arising from its use. This report is not an invitation or offer to buy or sell securities.

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