2017年-WEF世界经济论坛_Well_Live_to_100_–_How_Can_We_Afford_It_24页_1mb

Summary of "We'll Live to 100 – How Can We Afford It?"

Core Content

This report, produced by the World Economic Forum, explores the challenges and potential reforms for global retirement systems in the context of increasing life expectancy and an aging population. It emphasizes the need for sustainable and affordable retirement systems that can support individuals who are expected to live significantly longer than previous generations.

Main Challenges

• Increasing Life Expectancy and Falling Birth Rates: People are living longer, and birth rates are declining, leading to a shrinking workforce supporting a growing number of retirees.
• Low Financial Literacy: Many individuals lack the knowledge to manage their retirement savings effectively, which is especially problematic in self-directed pension systems.
• Inadequate Savings Rates: Current savings rates are far below the 10–15% needed to support a reasonable retirement income.
• High Individual Responsibility: Defined contribution (DC) systems place significant responsibility on individuals to manage their retirement savings, including investment choices, retirement timing, and withdrawal strategies.
• Lack of Access to Pension Plans: A large portion of the global workforce, particularly in the informal sector, lacks access to structured retirement savings options.

Key Findings

• The retirement savings gap is estimated at $70 trillion in 2015, with the largest shortfall in the United States.
• The gap is projected to grow to $400 trillion by 2050, representing a $28 billion daily deficit.
• Unfunded government-provided pensions account for over 75% of the gap, highlighting the need for stronger public pension systems.
• The corporate pension gap is smaller, typically 1% of the total, due to better funding levels.
• Individual savings shortfall is a significant issue, especially for lower and middle-income earners.

Principles for Retirement System Design

1. Adapt to the Changing Workforce

   • The workforce is evolving rapidly, with new job types emerging and individuals working longer.
   • Retirement systems must allow for flexibility in saving and working, with portable savings plans that can move between jobs and countries.
   • Technology and automatic enrollment can help individuals manage their savings more effectively.

2. Incorporate Measures to Reduce the Gender Imbalance

   • Women typically have 30–40% lower retirement balances than men due to lower career salaries and longer periods out of the workforce.
   • Life expectancy differences between genders must be considered in pension design to avoid discrimination.
   • Recognition of caregiving roles in retirement systems is crucial to ensure equitable outcomes.

3. Share Risks to Reduce the Burden on Individuals

   • Defined contribution systems require individuals to manage their own investments and retirement timing.
   • Collective systems (like in the Netherlands and Canada) allow for shared investment and longevity risks, reducing individual burden.
   • There are various risk-sharing models, from fully pooled to partially shared, that can be adapted to different contexts.

Actions for Policy-Makers

• Improve Access to Retirement Plans: Expand access to pension savings for informal and self-employed workers.
• Increase Contribution Rates: Encourage higher savings rates, especially among middle- and lower-income earners.
• Enhance Financial Literacy: Implement programs to improve understanding of retirement planning and investment basics.
• Promote Automatic Enrollment and Nudges: Use technology and behavioral economics to make saving easier and more habitual.
• Design Portable and Flexible Systems: Enable retirement savings to follow individuals across jobs and borders.
• Reform Public Pension Systems: Ensure that government-provided pensions are adequately funded and provide a safety net for all citizens.
• Address Gender Disparities: Adjust pension calculations to reflect gender-specific life expectancies and provide credits for caregiving.

Conclusion

The report underscores the urgency of reforming retirement systems to meet the needs of a longer-living population. While low investment returns and high fees are concerns, the primary challenge is the low savings rates and inadequate access to pension plans. Policy-makers must take proactive steps to ensure that retirement systems are sustainable, affordable, and inclusive, supporting both current and future generations.