20161125-招商证券_香港_-Select_winners_amid_macro_headwinds_35页_1mb_1mb
报告摘要
China Property Sector 2017 Summary
Core Content and Key Views
In 2017, the Chinese property sector faces macroeconomic headwinds, including continued policy tightening and interest rate hikes. Despite these challenges, active M&A activities, urban redevelopment, and asset restructuring are expected to continue, particularly among cash-rich developers, especially state-owned enterprises (SOEs), which are likely to benefit from these strategies. The sector is currently trading at a 40% discount to 1-year forward net asset value (NAV), with potential short-term downside risks due to policy and interest rate factors.
Investment Highlights
- Top BUYs: CIFI (884 HK) and Greentown (3900 HK) are highlighted as top investment choices due to their distressed valuations, potential for earnings growth, and strategic advantages.
- Outperformers: CIFI, Yuzhou, and Country Garden are expected to outperform the market in 2017 due to their strong fundamentals and strategic positioning.
- Key Investment Themes:
- CIFI: Disciplined land purchase strategy and steady profit growth.
- Greentown: Deep NAV discount and successful new product sales.
- COGO: Expected earnings rebound from parent asset injection.
- Yuzhou: Potential benefit from SZ-HK Stock Connect and better earnings growth than peers.
- Yuexiu Property: Distressed valuation and asset restructuring.
- COLI: Capture M&A opportunities, but slower profit growth due to CITIC acquisition digestion.
- Country Garden: Tier-3 city focus, strong home sales, but high net gearing.
- Agile Property: Slow earnings recovery and negative impact from expensive land acquisitions.
Industry Outlook
- Demand: Sales volume is expected to fall 15% YoY nationally, with significant declines in overheated cities due to cooling measures and reduced investment demand.
- Supply: New construction starts are projected to decline by 7% YoY, with continued sluggish land sales and tighter credit policies.
- Home Price Trends:
- Major Cities: Core districts remain flat, while suburban areas face downward pressure.
- Tier-3/4 Cities: Generally flat to single-digit growth, with some experiencing price declines due to reduced spillover effects from major cities.
- Credit Policies: Easing credit policies in 2017 are expected to be weaker than in 2016, with a projected 23% growth in mortgage balances compared to 31% in 2016.
Valuation and Performance
- Sector Valuation: The property sector is trading at 40% discount to 1-year forward NAV and 1SD below the 7-year mean.
- MSCI China Real Estate Index vs Hang Seng Index: The property sector underperformed the Hang Seng Index in previous cooling periods and is expected to continue underperforming in 2017.
- H-share vs A-share: H-shares offer higher dividend yields and are more attractive to domestic investors, with CIFI and Yuzhou being highlighted for their distressed valuations and potential for steady growth.
Financial Performance
- Contracted Sales: Expected to grow at 10%+ in 2016E, but difficult to achieve in 2017E except for some developers.
- Earnings Growth: Sector earnings are projected to grow 19% YoY in 2017E, driven by robust 2016E sales.
- Gross Margin (GPM): Expected to slightly rebound in 2017E due to higher home prices.
- Net Gearing: Expected to remain at 70-80%, in line with the 5-year historical average, due to reduced new land purchases and sales.
Summary Table
| Company | Ticker | Rating | Current Price (HK$) | Target Price (HK$) | Upside/downside | NAV Discount | FY16E P/E | FY17E P/E | FY16E P/B | FY17E P/B | FY16E Yield | FY17E Yield | FY16E Net Gearing | FY17E Net Gearing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greentown | 3900 HK | Buy | 6.34 | 7.90 | 25% | 65% | 5.1 | 4.6 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 3.7% | 4.3% | 95.7% | 95.8% |
| CIFI | 884 HK | Buy | 2.19 | 2.90 | 32% | 59% | 4.6 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 7.3% | 9.8% | 58.4% | 47.8% |
| COGO | 81 HK | Buy | 3.11 | 3.30 | 6% | 70% | 5.3 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.9% | 3.3% | 7.1% | 6.6% |
| Yuzhou | 1628 HK | Buy | 2.89 | 3.30 | 14% | 61% | 5.3 | 4.5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 7.1% | 7.8% | 79.6% | 74.2% |
| Yuexiu Property | 123 HK | Buy | 1.09 | 1.36 | 25% | 76% | 10.2 | 7.1 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 3.8% | 4.2% | 61.4% | 65.6% |
| China Aoyuan | 3883 HK | Buy | 1.78 | 2.80 | 57% | 75% | 4.1 | 3.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 8.1% | 10.6% | 65.4% | 68.6% |
| COLI | 688 HK | Neutral | 22.80 | 27.00 | 18% | 29% | 7.4 | 6.6 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 3.1% | 3.8% | 23% | 25% |
| Country Garden | 2007 HK | Neutral | 4.18 | 3.40 | -19% | 25% | 7.6 | 5.7 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 4.0% | 5.3% | 114.4% | 107.4% |
| Agile Property | 3383 HK | Neutral | 4.23 | 4.60 | 9% | 60% | 5.8 | 5.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 4.7% | 5.7% | 85.7% | 77.1% |
Key Events and Trends
- Cooling Measures: Tightened in 2016, leading to reduced land sales and mortgage approvals in overheated cities.
- Mortgage Trends: Expected to see weaker growth in 2017E, with a projected 23% growth compared to 31% in 2016E.
- Market Sentiment: Weaker buying sentiment and no likelihood of raising home prices in the short term.
- Supply and Demand: Fewer new supply and lower demand are expected, with a focus on asset restructuring and M&A opportunities.
Conclusion
The Chinese property sector is navigating a challenging environment in 2017, with policy and credit headwinds impacting demand and prices. However, active M&A, asset restructuring, and urban redevelopment provide growth opportunities. CIFI and Greentown are highlighted as top BUYs due to their distressed valuations and strong fundamentals. The sector remains undervalued, with potential for recovery as cooling measures ease and land prices stabilize.
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