20220207-IMF-Union_of_the_Comoros_First_Review_Under_the_Staff-Monitored_Program_and_Request_for_Extension_and_Staff_Report_52页_680kb

报告摘要

Summary of the First Review Under the Staff-Monitored Program (SMP) with the Union of the Comoros

Core Content

The Union of the Comoros has completed the first review under the Staff-Monitored Program (SMP) in February 2022. The SMP, approved in July 2021, is designed to support the government's reform program and establish a track record for a potential Extended Credit Facility (ECF) arrangement. The program focuses on pandemic recovery, fiscal restructuring, and institutional reforms to enhance debt sustainability, economic resilience, and governance.

Main Objectives of the SMP

Contain and recover from the pandemic
Implement structural reforms to address economic and institutional fragility
Boost inclusive growth and limit fiscal and external risks

Key Views and Outcomes

Program Implementation

End-September 2021: Authorities met six out of seven quantitative targets and both structural benchmarks.
Fiscal performance was stronger than anticipated, with tax revenue reaching KMF 34.6 billion (vs. projected KMF 27.3 billion) and non-tax revenue also exceeding expectations.
Domestic primary deficit was below initial projections but exceeded the target after adjusting for higher-than-expected revenue.
Net international reserves were substantially above the floor, at KMF 131.4 billion.
Cash transfers reached KMF 4.9 billion, above the floor of KMF 3 billion.
External arrears were avoided, and non-concessional debt was not contracted.

Structural Reforms

Benchmark 1: Active taxpayer registration was achieved.
Benchmark 2: Terms of reference for arrears audit were prepared.
Remaining benchmarks were rescheduled to end-February 2022 due to delays in preparatory work and organizational challenges.

Outlook and Risks

Economic growth is projected to rise from ~0% in 2020 to 1.6% in 2021 and 3.8% in 2022.
Inflation has increased slightly due to supply bottlenecks and import price rises, but remains low overall.
Debt sustainability remains a key concern, with three out of four external debt indicators exceeding thresholds, pushing external debt distress risk to "high".
Fiscal consolidation is expected to be less sharp in 2023 due to higher revenues and revised deficit targets.
Risks include pandemic resurgence, inter-island political tensions, and limited capacity to implement reforms effectively.

Policy and Program Discussions

A. Supporting Recovery and Fiscal Reforms

The fiscal stance is appropriate for recovery and debt sustainability.
Adjusters in the program mechanics were revised to accommodate unexpected revenue and spending.
Non-priority spending is being curtailed to meet adjusted fiscal targets.

B. Restructuring the Postal Bank and Strengthening the Financial Sector

The postal bank SNPSF is undergoing restructuring, but preparatory work has been delayed.
Central bank reserves have been converted into euros and deposited with the French Treasury for interest income.

C. Strengthening Governance and Reducing Corruption Vulnerability

Public procurement reporting is being improved, with beneficial ownership information included.
A framework for asset declarations by senior officials is being developed.
Anti-corruption measures are behind schedule, with delays attributed to inconsistent engagement with technical teams and institutional changes.

D. Other Issues

Remittances have increased, supporting the current account.
Exchange rate has depreciated by 3.5% since end-September 2021.
IMF support includes capacity development and external concessional financing mobilization.

Key Information

SMP Period: July 22, 2021 – December 31, 2021
Test Dates: End-September and End-December
Request for Extension: The SMP is extended to March 15, 2022 to accommodate rescheduling of structural benchmarks.
IMF Staff Views: Encouraged the satisfactory progress on end-September targets and urged acceleration of structural reforms to meet end-December benchmarks.
Document Availability: The report is available from the IMF Publication Services, with price set at $18.00 per printed copy.

Conclusion

The Union of the Comoros has made progress in fiscal performance and reform implementation under the SMP, although challenges remain in structural reform and debt sustainability. The IMF supports the government's reform agenda and has approved the first review, with a request for program extension to allow for rescheduling of certain benchmarks. Continued fiscal discipline, reform acceleration, and capacity building will be essential to sustain progress and move towards ECF eligibility.