2025-06-05-Jefferies-骨料与水泥_定价权和基础设施推动盈利韧性_27页_2mb

报告摘要

Equity Research: USA Building Products
June 5, 2025

1. Industry Overview

Pricing Power: Despite softer demand and higher interest rates, aggregates producers (MLM, VMC, EXP, TTAM) demonstrate strong pricing power due to:
- Depleting asset base (sand, gravel, crushed stone).
- High barriers to entry (limited shipping radius ~50 miles, consolidation).
- Infrastructure-driven demand from IIJA (Infrastructure Investment & Jobs Act), expected peak in 2025-2026 with long-term tail effects.
Cost Inflation: Cost increases slowed in recent years, leveling at ~LSD range, enabling sustained gross margin growth (DD% YoY).

2. Valuation & Upside

Ticker | Upside (%):
- EXP (Eagle Materials) +39%
- MLM (Martin Marietta Materials) +65%
- TTAM (Titan America SA) +72%
- VMC (Vulcan Materials) +73%
Replacement Value Analysis:
- VMC and MLM show highest upside due to advanced pricing power and strong local market consolidation.
- Aggregates reserves valued at ~$55.7B and $65.0B respectively, supporting premium valuations.

3. Key Drivers

Infrastructure: Public infrastructure spending (35-40% of aggregates demand) driven by IIJA, with federal funding at multi-decade highs.
Private Construction: Heavy nonresidential (e.g., manufacturing, data centers) offsets weakness in light commercial and residential.
Resilience: Aggregates volumes and prices are expected to decline modestly (LSD-MSD%) in moderate recession scenarios, but infrastructure demand remains robust.

4. Risks

Demand: Weakness in residential and light nonresidential construction.
Competition: Intense industry consolidation and pricing pressure.
Regulatory: Delays in IIJA implementation or changes in administration priorities.

5. Analyst Certifications

Philip Ng, Jesse Barone, Maggie Grady Miller, Fiona Shang certify that valuation reflects their personal views and compensation is not tied to recommendations.