2025-06-13-Jefferies-基础设施蓝图_17页_1mb

European Infrastructure Equity Research Summary

Date: June 13, 2025
Overall Market Outlook: Increased macro volatility is driving a defensive investment strategy, with roads and towers identified as the most resilient sectors in a potential escalation scenario. Airports are viewed with caution due to missed traffic data and Middle East tensions. The European data center sector remains strong, boosted by NVIDIA's growth commentary.

Key Recommendations:

• Recommended (BUY): Roads and towers sectors, including Vinci (BUY), Ferrovial (BUY), Cellnex (BUY), Helios Towers (BUY). ĀENA and Fraport are HOLD with underlying risks.
• HOLD/U.P.: Many construction and airport companies exhibit volatility; U.P. assigned to Fraport due to regulatory and load factor pressures.

Events Overview:

• Upcoming expert calls and events, including July dialogue on DORA for Aena (HOLD) and US express lanes analysis.
• Jefferies' mid-cap infrastructure conference highlights contractor trends.

Valuation & Metrics:

• European port and data center sectors innovate amidst regulatory shifts; data shows stable EV/EBITDA multiples for key players.
• Earnings calendar indicates concentrated activity in Q2 2025 with numerous AGMs and traffic reports.

Company-Level Highlights:

• Infrastructure leaders like Vinci and Ferrovial show strong buy-side momentum but face macro risks.
• Tower companies like Helios and Cellnex face NAV challenges, yet exhibit favorable yield profiles.
• Analysts note airport capacity constraints and completion risks in Europe.

Underlying Risks:

• Currency fluctuations, regulatory headwinds, and infrastructure cycle slowdowns could affect sector performance, as seen in recent traffic misses and undisclosed taxes.