2023-09-07-世界银行-塔吉克斯坦的空气质量管理（英）-2023.8-13页_13页_3mb

Air Quality Management in Tajikistan: Summary

Tajikistan's Air Quality Management (AQM) system requires significant strengthening to mitigate the health and economic impacts of air pollution, particularly in the most polluted airsheds such as Dushanbe. This summary outlines key findings from the World Bank study, focusing on the current status, source attribution, prioritization of interventions, and policy recommendations.

Air Quality Context

• Pollution Levels: Tajikistan faces high air pollution, with annual average PM2.5 concentrations estimated at 35.93 µg/m³ (global models), exceeding Central Asian and international standards like the EU limit of 25 µg/m³ and WHO guideline of 5 µg/m³.
• Health Impact: PM2.5 pollution is linked to 78 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants, the second highest rate in Central Asia, contributing to ischemic heart disease and stroke.
• Dushanbe Focus: Dushanbe is a key airshed with high population density. PM2.5 levels vary seasonally, peaking in autumn and winter, driven by anthropogenic and natural sources.
• Economic Loss: Air pollution incurs health costs estimated at 4% of GDP and other impacts, such as crop yield loss and accelerated glacier melt due to black carbon and ozone.

Source Attribution

• Main Sources: Preliminary analysis attributes PM2.5 pollution primarily to windblown dust (33%) and residential heating (31%, via inefficient stoves), followed by electric power generation (9%, including coal-fired CHPs), waste (7%), industry (4%), and transport (3%).
• Uncertainties: Data relies on global models and satellite data, needing validation with local measurements for accuracy.

Prioritizing and Financing Emission Reduction Interventions

• Investment Needs: Estimated cost for a 13% reduction in PM2.5 levels in Dushanbe is $111 million, drawn from cost estimates in Kazakhstan.
• Highest Priority: Interventions target the residential sector for improved heating (e.g., efficient stoves), potentially reducing pollution by up to 2 μg/m³ with significant mortality reduction.
• Other Sectors: Emissions cuts in industry, transport, and waste management are also prioritized based on intervention costs and pollution reduction potential.

Comprehensive AQM Policies: Gaps and Recommendations

• Key Gaps: Inadequate national legislation, limited monitoring systems, poor coordination among stakeholders, and gaps in emission inventories.
• Recommendations:
  • Amend the Law on Protection of the Atmospheric Air to include updated PM2.5 and PM10 standards.
  • Enhance monitoring infrastructure and capacity.
  • Develop a national AQM roadmap with local action plans, prioritizing high-impact interventions.
  • Implement fiscal reforms, such as a "Polluter Pays Principle," to incentivize emission reductions.
  • Strengthen regional and international coordination, particularly for windblown dust.

Conclusion

The study highlights the urgent need for integrated AQM reforms, including policy changes, institutional coordination, and targeted investments in emission reduction. Further technical assistance will focus on establishing a baseline for a robust AQM system and integrating air quality improvements with climate resilience efforts.