世界银行-塔吉克斯坦的空气质量管理（英）-2023.8-13页_3mb

Analysis Summary: Air Quality Management in Tajikistan

Objective

The World Bank's air quality management (AQM) study in Tajikistan aims to strengthen policies and interventions to reduce air pollution, particularly in Dushanbe, a high-pollution hotspot. The study analyzes current air quality, emission sources, prioritizes reduction measures, and recommends policy reforms to address gaps.

Key Findings

• Air Quality Context: Tajikistan faces severe air pollution, with annual average population-weighted PM2.5 concentration at 35.93 µg/m³—the highest in Central Asia and above WHO guidelines. Dushanbe's airshed shows PM2.5 levels ranging from 13.8 to 58.1 µg/m³, peaking in autumn and winter. Health impacts include 4,800 premature deaths annually, mostly from ischemic heart disease and stroke.

• Emission Sources: Preliminary source apportionment attributes 33% of PM2.5 to windblown dust and 31% to residential heating (individual households). Other sources include power generation (9%), waste (7%), industry (4%), and transport (3%). Natural and anthropogenic factors contribute, with dust events common due to regional sources.

• Monitoring and Data: Limited monitoring exists; only stations in Dushanbe and global models are used. Data gaps require further ground-level measurements for validation. The analysis suggests PM2.5 trends need confirmation with local data.

• Investment Needs: Prioritizing emission reductions for a 13% PM2.5 reduction in Dushanbe requires $111 million. The residential sector (improved heating) offers the largest pollution reduction at $20 million per µg/m³ decrease, potentially reducing mortality by 70–100 cases.

Recommendations

• Policy Reforms: Amend air quality legislation to include updated standards (e.g., WHO guidelines), develop regulations for all sources, and integrate with environmental fiscal reforms, such as pollution fees under the "Polluter Pays Principle."

• Strengthening AQM: Enhance monitoring systems with automated stations, improve data collection, and build institutional capacity through coordination platforms and training programs. Prioritize emission-reduction interventions for high-impact sources, like residential heating and waste management.

• Coordination and Roadmap: Establish a national AQM platform for multi-stakeholder collaboration, develop a roadmap for policy reforms, and integrate air quality and climate actions to achieve synergies. Address transboundary dust events through regional cooperation.

Conclusion

Tajikistan must urgently strengthen its AQM framework, focusing on reducing PM2.5 emissions through targeted interventions and policy reforms to mitigate health risks and support sustainable development.