20231229-大越期货-沪铜早报_13页_2mb

Copper Market Summary for SHFE Code 839979

Key Findings

• Market Sentiment: Neutral to positive, with copper prices showing volatility due to mixed signals from supply-demand dynamics and macroeconomic factors.

Fundamental Analysis

• Supply acceleration is noted, with relaxed scrap copper policies, but manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.4% in November, indicating slight cooling in sector activity. Overall neutral tone due to conflicting signals.

Basis and Price Position

• Current basis: Spot price at 69710, with a positive basis of 370 (backed by futures). This suggests short-term support at the spot level.

Inventory Trends

• Copper inventories rose to 166,775 tons, with SHFE copper inventory declining to 28,718 tons. Inventories are historically low, providing some price support, but increases elsewhere offset this neutrality.

Price Action and Moving Averages

• Closure above the 20-day moving average, which is upward trending, indicating short-term positive momentum and potential upside support.

Holding Positions

• Main contract holders are net long, with positions increasing, signaling bullish sentiment from traders and institutional players.

Market Outlook and Expectations

• Demand remains weak in the near term, but strong macro expectations and improving sentiment from geopolitical events (e.g., Ukraine-Russia and Israeli-Palestinian tensions) offer some support. Copper prices are expected to remain volatile, with no clear dominant trend. Economic risks include inflation-related tightening by the Fed and global slowdown, which could suppress demand.

Supporting Factors (利多)

• Low exchange inventories and ongoing geopolitical disturbances add potential upward pressure on prices.

Weakening Factors (利空)

• Copper processing fees stabilizing, increased ore production, high inflation prompting monetary tightening, and global economic uncertainty could cap price gains.

Market Logic and Risks

• Logic centers on US inflation persistence, domestic monetary policy risks, and natural disasters as potential disruptors. Balance of power depends on macro sentiment shifts and demand recovery.

Data Summary

• Inventories: Total copper inventory high, SHFE lower; LME and bonded zone levels remain low.
• Price Spread: Copper is in an inverted structure, expected to support prices.
  -供需 Balance: Historically, copper saw shortages in 2021 but excesses in 2022, signaling potential tightening opportunities.

The report from Daliang Futures advises caution due to mixed signals, with no firm investment recommendation.