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Nickel Market Weekly Summary

The nickel market report highlights a short-term neutral-to-bearish outlook due to fundamental tightness in the pure nickel supply side, but with long-term risks from increasing global nickel production capacity. Key areas include:

• Core View and Strategy: The market views pure nickel as relatively tight, with low inventory levels supporting prices against downward pressure. Recommended strategy is to "逢高抛空" (short-sell on strength), with risks from central bank policies and supply disruptions.

• Supply Analysis: Nickel mine prices are stable but weak, with 15%CIF均价 at $52/wet tonne and slight declines. Nickel iron (Nife) prices dropped to $10925/镍点, though some market support is evident from higher Indonesian iron prices. Global inventories are low; LME and SHFE inventories decreased, with SHFE at a historic low of 171 tons of nickel warehouse stock, indicating potential price support from scarcity.

• Demand and Consumption: Demand remains subdued as consumer sectors lack order recovery, and nickel prices falling has dampened buying appetite from steel producers. Highlighted is the weakness in stainless steel inventory and demand indicators.

• Macroeconomic Factors: Positive signs from US politics, such as the debt ceiling negotiation breakthrough, may boost risk sentiment. However, inflation data (e.g., PCE figures) suggests persistent price pressures, potentially leading to further Federal Reserve monetary tightening, which could weigh on nickel prices.

• Price Projections: Short-term nickel prices are expected to be range-bound or weak, between 155000-167000 yuan/tonne for Shanghai nickel and 20300-22000 USD/tonne for London nickel. Medium to long-term forecasts are bearish, as electric nickel production ramps up could lead to全产业链过剩 (full-industry overcapacity).

Supporting data from charts includes inventory trends and price ratios, reinforcing the bearish outlook. Risks emphasize global supply dynamics and economic policies.