2010年-世界发展银行全球_Regional_Trade_Policy_Options_for_Tanzania___The_Importance_of_Services_Commitments_121页_1mb

Regional Trade Policy Options for Tanzania: The Importance of Services Commitments

Core Content

This paper, authored by Jesper Jensen and David G. Tarr, analyzes the impact of regional trade policy options on Tanzania's economy, with a particular focus on the role of services commitments in trade agreements. It develops a 52-sector applied general equilibrium (AGE) model to assess the effects of preferential and multilateral liberalization of business services barriers on productivity, competitiveness, and overall welfare.

Main Viewpoints

• Services and Productivity: Economic theory and empirical evidence show that the availability of business services enhances manufacturing productivity and international competitiveness.
• Regional Trade Agreements (RTAs): Tanzania is actively involved in various RTAs, including the East African Customs Union (EAC) and the Southern African Development Community (SADC), and may be called upon to make further services commitments under the Doha Development Agenda.
• Impact of Preferential Liberalization: A 50% preferential reduction in barriers to all business services with African regional partners yields slight benefits for Tanzania. However, when extended to the EU, the gains triple, and when applied unilaterally to all foreign partners, they increase by seventeen times.
• Multilateral vs. Preferential: Multilateral liberalization leads to greater gains because it allows access to a wider range of service providers, including those from technologically advanced countries.
• Non-Discriminatory Barriers: Reducing non-discriminatory regulatory barriers can significantly enhance the benefits of multilateral liberalization by increasing access to services and reducing costs for both Tanzanians and foreign providers.
• Technological Spillovers: Small countries benefit more from technological spillovers when engaging in trade with technologically advanced economies, which is a key factor in the higher gains from EU liberalization compared to African regional liberalization.
• Welfare Analysis: The paper uses partial equilibrium models to analyze welfare gains and losses from preferential liberalization, showing that initial rent capture by domestic firms can limit or even reverse the welfare benefits.

Key Information

• Model Development: The paper builds on a 52-sector AGE model of Tanzania, incorporating features of modern trade theory, including endogenous productivity gains from increased variety of imperfectly produced goods and services.
• Parameter Sensitivity: The model is executed 30,000 times to assess the sensitivity of results to parameter values, with findings reported as confidence intervals of the sample distributions.
• Policy Recommendations: The study suggests that preferential liberalization is a valuable first step, but wider liberalization with larger partners or multilaterally is more beneficial. It also emphasizes the importance of reducing non-discriminatory regulatory barriers in service sectors.

Structure of the Paper

• I. Introduction: Discusses the importance of services in economic development and the need for a model to assess the impact of trade liberalization.
• II. Review of Applied General Equilibrium Literature: Highlights previous studies on regional trade agreements and their economic impacts, including the Canada-US FTA, EU single market, and NAFTA.
• III. Welfare Economics of Preferential Trade Liberalization in Services: Analyzes welfare impacts using partial equilibrium models and considers the effects of initial rent capture.
• IV. Overview of Tanzanian Services Sectors: Describes the current state of Tanzania's services sectors and the regulatory challenges they face.
• V. Estimating Tariff Equivalents of Services Barriers: Details the methodology used to estimate the tariff equivalents of services barriers.
• VI. Model Overview: Provides an overview of the 52-sector model used in the study.
• VII. Data Discussion: Explains the data sources and assumptions used in the model.
• VIII. Central Results: Presents the main findings of the study, including the benefits of different liberalization scenarios.
• IX. Sensitivity Analysis: Discusses the results of the sensitivity analysis, showing how parameter uncertainty affects the outcomes.
• X. Policy Options in Professional Services: Focuses on possible policy options in professional services within the East African Customs Union.
• XI. Conclusions: Summarizes the key conclusions and implications for Tanzanian trade policy.

Key Findings

• Benefits of Liberalization: A 50% reduction in barriers to business services with African partners provides slight benefits, but the gains are much larger when extended to the EU or unilaterally.
• Non-Discriminatory Barriers: Reducing non-discriminatory regulatory barriers can significantly enhance the benefits of multilateral liberalization.
• Elasticity Effects: The elasticity of supply and demand plays a crucial role in determining the welfare impact of liberalization. Higher elasticities in the partner country lead to greater welfare gains.
• Welfare Impacts: With no initial rent capture, welfare gains are unambiguous. However, if domestic firms initially capture rents, the welfare impact becomes ambiguous or even negative in some cases.

Conclusion

The study underscores the importance of services in enhancing productivity and competitiveness for developing countries like Tanzania. It advocates for broader liberalization and the reduction of non-discriminatory regulatory barriers to maximize the benefits of trade agreements, particularly with technologically advanced partners. The findings highlight the need for a comprehensive framework to assess the ex ante welfare impacts of preferential trade agreements in services.