世界发展银行-Deep-Services-Trade-Agreements-and-their-Effect-on-Trade-and-Value-Added_55页_10mb

Summary of "Deep Services Trade Agreements and their Effect on Trade and Value Added"

Core Content

This paper investigates the impact of deep services trade agreements (PTAs) on cross-border services trade and the sourcing of value added (VA) from PTA partners. It highlights how the structure and depth of these agreements, particularly in terms of liberalizing investment and the movement of people, significantly influence trade outcomes and the integration of countries into international value chains.

Main Points

1. Growth and Scope of Services PTAs

• The majority of services trade occurs under preferential trade agreements (PTAs), especially since the 1960s.
• Services PTAs have become increasingly ambitious, covering not only goods but also services, knowledge, and people.
• As of 2016, over 120 economies were signatories to at least one services PTA, with countries like Chile, Singapore, and South Korea leading in the number of such agreements.
• The EU, Japan, the US, China, and Peru also have a high number of services PTAs.

2. Impact on Trade

• Services PTAs are associated with a 15-65% increase in bilateral services trade, particularly in regulation-intensive sectors such as financial and insurance services, business and professional services, and charges for intellectual property rights.
• The trade-enhancing effect is primarily driven by deep PTAs, which feature ambitious structures, meaningful disciplines, and accountability mechanisms.
• These agreements are more effective than shallow ones, and their impact is not random but influenced by country-specific features.

3. Effect on Value Added Sourcing

• Services PTAs influence the sourcing pattern of value added from PTA partners.
• Countries tend to import more foreign services value added from within PTA partners than from non-PTA partners.
• These agreements also contribute to the redirection of value added inputs from non-PTA to PTA partners, which has implications for value chain trade.
• Mode 3 and Mode 4 services (investment and movement of people) are particularly affected by these provisions, which are linked to higher foreign services value added.

4. Methodology and Data

• The analysis uses the World Bank Deep Trade Agreements 2.0 (WB-DTA) database, which provides detailed information on the structure and depth of services PTAs.
• It also employs the ITPD-E dataset, the most comprehensive bilateral services trade data available, and the TiVA 2018 dataset for value-added analysis.
• The paper uses a gravity model and three-way clustering to address potential endogeneity issues.

Key Findings

• Deep PTAs lead to substantial increases in bilateral services trade.
• Regulation-intensive services are most affected by these agreements.
• Services PTAs influence the sourcing of value added from PTA partners, increasing the contribution of foreign services to manufacturing exports.
• The structure and content of services PTAs, particularly investment and movement of people provisions, are critical for trade liberalization and value chain integration.
• The paper is the first to use detailed policy-level data to assess the sector-specific effects of services PTAs.

Policy Implications

• Services PTAs should be viewed as important policy instruments for trade liberalization and value chain integration.
• The depth of agreements matters more than their mere existence.
• Countries with similar unilateral services regulations are more likely to form services PTAs.
• The availability of detailed data is crucial for understanding the impact of specific provisions on trade and value added.

Conclusion

• The paper provides new insights into how services PTAs affect trade and value chain activities.
• It underscores the importance of policy depth and specific provisions in services agreements.
• The results suggest that deep services PTAs are not only beneficial for direct trade but also for integrating countries into global value chains.

Appendix Notes

• The paper is part of a broader effort by the World Bank to promote open access to research and contribute to development policy discussions.
• The WB-DTA database contains 64 variables across eight policy areas, including agreement structure, market access, non-discrimination, and dispute settlement.
• The ITPD-E dataset includes 17 services sectors and 17 years of data, offering a more detailed analysis than previous datasets.