2022年国防预算请求分析-34页_2mb

2022 Defense Budget Request Analysis: "Slow and Steady"

Core Content

The 2022 Department of Defense (DoD) budget request, titled "Slow and Steady: Analysis of the 2022 Defense Budget Request", is authored by Travis Sharp, a Fellow at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments (CSBA). The report examines the budget's continuity with past trends and its implications for U.S. national security strategy.

Main Points

1. Budget Continuity

• The 2022 request maintains the status quo in terms of the DoD topline, funding distribution across appropriation accounts, and allocation among military departments.
• The topline remains at $715 billion in inflation-adjusted terms, representing a -0.2% real decrease compared to the FY 2021 enacted level.
• The budget includes war and enduring operations costs within the base budget for the first time since 2001, eliminating a separate war funding account.

2. Historical Comparison

• The FY 2022 growth rate is the closest to zero among all first-year defense budgets since 1945, indicating a highly conservative approach.
• It exceeds the -1.7% average real decrease for postwar administrations' first budgets, but is still below the 3.7% average of the Bush, Obama, and Trump administrations, which were marked by increased overseas military operations.

3. Trends in Budget Allocation

The report highlights two long-term trends in the DoD budget:

Trend One: Increasing Share for Investment

• From FY 2013 to FY 2021, the share of the DoD budget allocated to investment and other support grew from 29% to 36%.
• This includes procurement, RDT&E, military construction, and family housing.
• The procurement share increased from 17% to 20%, and RDT&E from 11% to 15%, despite ongoing operations against Daesh (ISIS) and readiness rebuilding.
• The FY 2022 request continues this trend, allocating 35% to investment and other support, with procurement at 18% and RDT&E at 16%.
• While historically consistent, the report raises concerns about overinvestment in RDT&E without corresponding procurement, suggesting a need for better metrics to evaluate the efficiency of RDT&E spending.

Trend Two: Increasing Share for Air and Naval Forces

• From FY 2013 to FY 2021, the share of the DoD budget allocated to air and naval forces rose from 48% to 52%.
• The Air Force share increased from 25% to 29%, and the Navy from 22% to 25% (excluding the Marine Corps).
• The FY 2022 request continues this trend, allocating 53% to air and naval forces, with the Air Force at 30% and the Navy at 23%.
• The ground forces share decreased from 35% to 31%, with the Army at 24% and the Marine Corps at 7%.
• These shifts align with the 2018 National Defense Strategy, which emphasizes great power competition, particularly with China and Russia, where air and naval capabilities are seen as critical.

Key Information

Budget Overview

• The national defense budget (including DoD, energy nuclear activities, and other non-DoD programs) is $752.9 billion for FY 2022, with a -0.2% real decrease compared to FY 2021.
• The Office of Management and Budget (OMB) projects 0.2% annual real growth for DoD from FY 2023 to FY 2026, which the report assumes will guide future deliberations.

Methodology

• The report uses two approaches: Delphi (based on insider knowledge of policymakers and processes) and Moneyball (based on historical data and patterns).
• It primarily employs the Moneyball method, analyzing real growth rates and share shifts by administration year since FY 1953.

Forecast

• Based on historical trends, the report forecasts that the DoD could shift $121 billion in funding across military departments and defense-wide activities from FY 2023 to FY 2026.
• This figure represents the potential reallocation of funds to higher priorities and away from lower ones, assuming OMB's projections hold.

Conclusion

The FY 2022 DoD budget request reflects a "slow and steady" approach, maintaining the status quo in topline spending and continuing long-term trends toward investment and air/sea forces. This strategy aligns with the 2018 National Defense Strategy and the great power competition focus. The report suggests that future budget decisions will likely follow historical patterns, with the most significant share shifts occurring in the third year of an administration and the least in the fifth.

Figures and Tables

• Figure 1: Compares FY 2022 DoD real growth rate to past first-year budgets.
• Figure 2: Shows the growing share of investment in the DoD topline from FY 2013 to FY 2022.
• Figure 3: Illustrates the increasing share of air and naval forces from FY 2013 to FY 2022.
• Table 1: Provides discretionary budget authority for FY 21 to FY 26.
• Table 2: CSBA forecast of DoD topline from FY 23 to FY 26.
• Table 3: CSBA estimate of potential topline share shifts from FY 23 to FY 26.

Author and Organization

• Travis Sharp is a Fellow at CSBA and a U.S. Navy Reserve officer.
• CSBA is an independent, nonpartisan research institute that provides analysis on national security strategy and defense investment.
• The report is part of a 36-year series of annual defense budget analyses by CSBA and its predecessors.

Acknowledgments

• The report acknowledges feedback from several experts, including John Speed Meyers, Jack Bianchi, Madison Creery, Evan Montgomery, and Thomas G. Mahnken.
• CSBA receives funding from a diverse range of contributors, including private foundations, government agencies, and corporations.

Summary

The 2022 DoD budget request is characterized by stability, historical continuity, and gradual shifts in funding priorities. It maintains a flat topline and continues two key trends: increased investment and greater emphasis on air and naval forces. The report suggests that these trends are aligned with the 2018 National Defense Strategy and the strategic focus on China and Russia. While the Biden administration has not made large early changes, the report forecasts that future share shifts could amount to $121 billion over the next four years.