2015年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Pakistan_Seventh_Review_Under_the_Extended_Arrangement_and_Modification_of_Performance_Criteria_85页_1mb

Summary of the Seventh Review Under the Extended Arrangement and Modification of Performance Criteria for Pakistan

Core Content

The IMF Executive Board completed the Seventh Review under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) for Pakistan on June 26, 2015, enabling the disbursement of SDR 360 million (about US$506.4 million). This brings total disbursements under the arrangement to SDR 2.88 billion (about US$4.05 billion). The review assessed Pakistan's economic performance, policy developments, and structural reforms, and highlighted progress and ongoing challenges.

Main Points

• Program Overview:
  A 36-month Extended Arrangement under the EFF was approved in September 2013 for SDR 4.393 billion (about US$6.18 billion).
  The sixth review was completed in March 2015, with total disbursements reaching SDR 2.52 billion.
  The seventh review marks a successful disbursement of the next tranche, bringing the total to SDR 2.88 billion.

• Economic Performance:
  Real GDP growth for FY2014/15 is expected to be 4.1 percent, slightly below previous forecasts.
  The current account turned positive in Q3 FY2014/15 due to falling oil prices and strong remittances.
  Inflation remained near multi-year lows at 3.2 percent y-o-y in May 2015, driven by lower commodity prices.
  Foreign exchange reserves reached US$11.6 billion by end-March 2015, covering nearly three months of imports and 55 percent of the ARA metric, with an expected increase to US$14 billion by end-June 2015.

• Fiscal Policy:
  The budget deficit for FY2014/15 was better than expected due to restrained development spending.
  The end-March 2015 indicative target on cash transfers under the Benazir Income Support Program (BISP) was met.
  The FY2015/16 deficit target is set at 4.0 percent of GDP (excluding grants) and 4.3 percent including an adjustor for one-off spending.
  The fiscal adjustment pace is expected to increase from 0.5 percent of GDP in FY2014/15 to at least 0.7 percent in FY2015/16.
  Revenue measures in FY2015/16 include:

  • Customs duty: PRs 42 billion (0.1% of GDP)
  • GST and excise: PRs 54 billion (0.2% of GDP)
  • Income tax: PRs 142 billion (0.5% of GDP)
  • GIDC: PRs 70 billion (0.2% of GDP)
  • Total: PRs 308 billion (1.0% of GDP)
  • Elimination of tax concessions and exemptions: PRs 98 billion (0.3% of GDP)

• Challenges and Risks:
  The federal tax revenue target was slightly missed in Q3 due to legal challenges and lower oil prices.
  Structural reforms are progressing, but legal challenges and political constraints continue to pose risks.
  The power sector remains a major bottleneck for growth and public finances, with a comprehensive medium-term plan to address arrears.
  Exchange rate appreciation and low export commodity prices are limiting export performance and may impact current account stability.
  Security conditions remain fragile, affecting economic activity and fiscal consolidation.

• Key Reforms and Progress:

  • Legal reforms: The Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) no longer has the authority to grant administrative tax exemptions.
  • Tax compliance: A monitoring system was established to track progress and set quarterly objectives.
  • GST refund claims: The backlog was reduced by over 50 percent, and payments increased by 25 percent since June 2014.
  • Central bank reforms: The SBP has initiated the implementation of the improved interest rate corridor, and the SBP Act amendments were submitted to the National Assembly in March 2015 to enhance autonomy and independence.
  • Debt management: The Debt Policy Coordination Office (DPCO) has been reorganized, and a new medium-term debt strategy (MTDS) is planned for publication by end-January 2016.
  • Public sector development: Steps to reduce electricity subsidies and contain circular debt are being taken.
  • Social support: The BISP program expanded to 5.3 million beneficiary households by 2016, with additional support from development partners to protect real purchasing power.

Key Information

• SDR 360 million was disbursed following the seventh review.
• Structural benchmarks (SBs) for end-March 2015 were all met, including:
  • Draft legislation to prohibit administrative tax exemptions.
  • Simplification of tax processes.
  • Reorganization of DPCO.
• Future targets include:
  • Adjustments to net international reserves (NIR) and new indicative targets for the power sector.
  • New structural benchmarks in tax administration, debt management, and the power sector.
• Program adjustor allows for one-off spending of up to PRs 100 billion on security and resettlement.
• Contingency measures are in place to address potential shortfalls in fiscal adjustment, including tariff adjustments and legislative amendments.

Conclusion

The seventh review confirmed progress in macroeconomic stabilization and fiscal reforms, despite ongoing legal, political, and security challenges. Continued efforts in tax compliance, debt management, and structural reforms are critical for long-term economic sustainability and inclusive growth. The IMF remains supportive of Pakistan's reform agenda, emphasizing the importance of reserves accumulation, monetary policy stability, and enhanced governance.