全球资金流向_2025年数据盘点_47页_4mb

Global In the Flow - 2025 Summary

Core Content Overview

This report provides a comprehensive review of global financial markets in 2025, highlighting performance trends, technical indicators, sentiment shifts, and key macroeconomic factors. It is authored by Morgan Stanley's Cross-Asset Strategy team, with insights from several strategists.

Key Performance Highlights

• Global Equities saw strong gains, with the ACWI closing at +22.9%.
• MSCI EU led developed market (DM) returns with +36.3%.
• MSCI Korea led emerging market (EM) returns with an impressive +100.8%.
• EM Sovereign Bonds outperformed other fixed income assets with +13.1%.
• Gold had its best year on record, with a return of +64.4%.
• The US dollar underperformed G10 currencies by -9.4%.
• MSCI EU and MSCI EM led real returns in 2025, with +33% and +31% respectively.

Technical Trends

• DM IG gross issuance increased by 10% compared to 2024.
• T3M flows into US IG funds outperformed those into HY funds.

Sentiment Analysis

• The VIX spiked to 5-year highs post-Liberation Day but recovered to cycle lows by year-end.
• The All Bulls-Bears indicator and II survey remained in confidence territory, suggesting continued investor optimism.

Market Review & Trends

Asset Class Returns by Year

• Blue indicates returns beat inflation, while Red indicates returns trailed inflation.

Major Equity Markets

• MSCI ACWI: +22.9%
• S&P 500: +17.9%
• MSCI Europe: +36.3%
• MSCI Korea: +100.8%
• Hang Seng: +32.5%
• MSCI Taiwan: +39.8%
• MSCI Brazil: +50.4%
• MSCI Mexico: +56.9%
• MSCI South Africa: +78.7%
• MSCI China: +31.4%

Equity Sectors (MSCI ACWI)

• ACWI Large: +23.5%
• ACWI Small Cap: +32.7%
• ACWI Growth: +22.7%
• ACWI Value: +22.8%

Equity Styles

• US Large: +19.1%
• US Small: +12.1%
• US Growth: +21.1%
• US Value: +13.7%
• EU Large: +35.5%
• EU Small: +32.7%
• EU Growth: +24.0%
• EU Value: +49.3%

Fixed Income Returns

• UST 10Y: +6.3%
• DBR 10Y: -1.6%
• EM Sov.: +13.1%

FX Performance

• DXY fell by 9.4%
• JPY depreciated by 0.3% against USD

Market Sentiment

• VIX stood at 15.0, indicating neutral sentiment.

Flows and Issuance

• DM HY gross issuance decreased by 4% YoY.
• DM IG gross issuance increased by 10% YoY.

Market-Implied Policy Moves

• Fed rate fell by -59bp over N12M.
• ECB rate increased by +3bp over N12M.

Key Insights and Analysis

• Equity markets dominated the year with strong returns, particularly in Europe and Korea.
• EM Sov. bonds were the best-performing fixed income asset class.
• Gold had a record-breaking year, outperforming other assets significantly.
• FX showed mixed performance, with DM currencies generally outperforming the US dollar.
• Market sentiment remained relatively stable, with the VIX fluctuating but ultimately recovering to cycle lows.
• Credit markets saw varied returns, with HY outperforming IG in some cases.
• DM IG issuance increased, suggesting a shift in investor preference.

Additional Notes

• The report acknowledges potential conflicts of interest due to Morgan Stanley's business relationships with companies covered in its research.
• For analyst certification and disclosures, refer to the Disclosure Section at the end of the report.
• The document is dated December 31, 2025, and all data is as of that date.