CBO-2018年美国最低工资增长调查（英文）-2019.7-52页_1mb

CBO Summary: Effects of Increasing the Federal Minimum Wage on Employment and Family Income

Core Content

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) analyzed the potential effects of increasing the federal minimum wage to $15, $12, or $10 per hour by 2025. The analysis focuses on employment impacts and changes in family income, considering both direct and indirect effects. The findings highlight significant uncertainties in the outcomes due to varying assumptions about wage growth and employment responsiveness to wage changes.

Main Options Examined

CBO evaluated three options for raising the federal minimum wage:

1. $15 Option:

   • The minimum wage would increase in six steps from $7.25 to $15 by 2025.
   • After 2025, it would be indexed to median hourly wages.
   • Exceptions for tipped, teenage, and disabled workers would be gradually eliminated.

2. $12 Option:

   • The minimum wage would increase to $12 in six steps from 2020 to 2025.
   • It would not be indexed to future wage growth.
   • Exceptions for tipped, teenage, and disabled workers would remain in place.

3. $10 Option:

   • The minimum wage would increase to $10 in six steps from 2020 to 2025.
   • Like the $12 option, it would not be indexed to future wage growth.
   • Exceptions for tipped, teenage, and disabled workers would remain in place.

Effects on Employment and Family Income

Employment Effects

• $15 Option:

  • Median estimate: 1.3 million workers would lose their jobs in an average week in 2025.
  • A two-thirds chance that the employment change would be between 0 and a reduction of 3.7 million workers.
  • The largest employment impact among the three options.

• $12 Option:

  • Median estimate: 0.3 million workers would lose their jobs in an average week in 2025.
  • A two-thirds chance that the employment change would be between 0 and a reduction of 0.8 million workers.
  • Smaller employment impact compared to the $15 option.

• $10 Option:

  • Median estimate: Virtually no effect on employment.
  • A two-thirds chance that the employment change would be between 0 and a reduction of 0.1 million workers.
  • The smallest employment impact.

Family Income Effects

• $15 Option:

  • Boosts wages for 17 million workers earning below $15 per hour and 10 million earning slightly above.
  • Reduces total real family income by $9 billion in 2025 (0.1%).
  • Lifts about 1.3 million people out of poverty.
  • Has a significant negative impact on low-income families, but also affects higher-income families through reduced business income and higher prices.

• $12 Option:

  • Boosts wages for 5 million workers earning below $12 per hour and 6 million earning slightly above.
  • Reduces total real family income by $1 billion (less than 0.05%).
  • Lifts about 0.4 million people out of poverty.
  • Has a smaller effect on both employment and income compared to the $15 option.

• $10 Option:

  • Boosts wages for 1.5 million workers earning below $10 per hour and 2 million earning slightly above.
  • Reduces total real family income by $0.1 billion (a very small percentage).
  • Has a negligible effect on the number of people in poverty.
  • The smallest impact on both employment and family income.

Key Factors Influencing Outcomes

Uncertainty in Employment Effects

• Wage Growth Uncertainty: If current wage growth is higher than CBO's projections, the employment impact of raising the minimum wage would be smaller. Conversely, if wage growth is lower, the impact would be larger.
• Employment Responsiveness: The responsiveness of employment to wage increases is uncertain. If employment is more sensitive to wage hikes, the number of job losses could be greater than estimated. If less sensitive, the impact would be smaller.

Impact on Family Income

• The increase in the minimum wage would raise wages for many low-wage workers, potentially lifting some families out of poverty.
• However, the overall effect on real family income is negative due to reduced employment, lower business income, and higher prices.
• The magnitude of the impact depends on the level of the minimum wage increase, with the $15 option having the most significant effect.

Summary of Key Findings

Conclusion

• Raising the federal minimum wage to $15, $12, or $10 per hour would have varying effects on employment and family income.
• The $15 option would have the largest impact, reducing employment by up to 3.7 million and reducing poverty by 1.3 million.
• The $10 option would have the smallest effect, with minimal changes to employment and negligible impact on poverty.
• The outcomes are uncertain due to variability in wage growth and employment responsiveness to wage changes.