巴黎银行-新兴市场-宏观策略-2019年Q3新兴市场展望：差异化问题-20190522-9页_847kb
报告摘要
EM Outlook Q3 2019 – Differentiation Matters
Core Content Summary
This document outlines the BNP Paribas Group's outlook for emerging markets (EM) in the third quarter of 2019, emphasizing the importance of differentiation among EM economies. It provides a comprehensive analysis of growth, inflation, and monetary policy trends, while also including legal and compliance disclaimers regarding the nature of the report and its intended audience.
Main Viewpoints
1. Global Context and EM Resilience
- The global economy is in a late-cycle phase, and while risks remain, a systemic crisis is not expected.
- EMs are more resilient today due to improved financial structures, including larger foreign reserves, lower inflation, more flexible exchange rates, and better debt composition.
- EMs are less vulnerable to contagion and global jitters compared to previous decades.
2. Growth Outlook
- EM real GDP growth is expected to slow in 2019, with forecasts significantly below the consensus.
- Growth deceleration is attributed to weaker trade, limited investment, and constrained fiscal space.
- Key countries with notable downward revisions include Brazil, Turkey, and South Africa, with ASEAN economies also affected by a slump in Chinese imports.
3. Inflation Trends
- Inflation is expected to remain contained in most EMs, with core inflation indicators showing stability.
- The EM inflation median is forecasted to be around 3–4%.
- Argentina and Turkey are exceptions, with high inflation rates expected to persist.
4. Monetary Policy Outlook
- A shift from monetary tightening to easing is anticipated in EMs for 2019.
- Central banks are likely to cut interest rates in response to softer growth and low inflation, with Brazil and South Africa expected to cut rates by 50bp and 25bp respectively.
- Mexico is expected to begin easing in Q4 2019, while Central Europe may see limited easing due to wage pressures.
- Poland is expected to maintain a dovish stance, with rate hikes anticipated only in H2 2020.
Key Information
EM Growth Forecasts (2018–2020)
| Country | 2018 GDP Growth (%) | 2019 GDP Growth (%) | 2020 GDP Growth (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Argentina | -2.5 | -1.2 | 2.5 |
| Brazil | 1.1 | 0.8 | 2.5 |
| Chile | 4.0 | 3.0 | 2.5 |
| China | 6.6 | 6.2 | 6.0 |
| Colombia | 2.9 | 3.5 | 3.8 |
| Czech Republic | 2.9 | 2.8 | 2.5 |
| Hungary | 4.9 | 3.4 | 2.6 |
| India | 7.4 | 7.6 | 7.7 |
| Indonesia | 5.2 | 5.0 | 5.0 |
| Malaysia | 4.7 | 4.3 | 4.3 |
| Mexico | 2.0 | 1.5 | 1.0 |
| Poland | 5.1 | 4.0 | 3.5 |
| Romania | 4.1 | 3.4 | 2.1 |
| Saudi Arabia | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.2 |
| South Africa | 0.8 | 0.9 | 1.5 |
| Thailand | 4.2 | 3.6 | 3.8 |
| Turkey | 2.5 | 0.8 | 3.1 |
| EM Aggregate (GDP Weighted) | 3.8 | 3.3 | 3.4 |
EM Inflation Forecasts (2018–2020)
| Country | 2018 CPI Inflation (%) | 2019 CPI Inflation (%) | 2020 CPI Inflation (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Argentina | 34.3 | 48.0 | 24.0 |
| Brazil | 3.7 | 3.9 | 3.9 |
| Chile | 2.4 | 3.0 | 2.4 |
| China | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.6 |
| Colombia | 3.2 | 3.4 | 3.5 |
| Czech Republic | 2.1 | 2.4 | 1.9 |
| Hungary | 2.9 | 3.3 | 3.0 |
| India | 3.4 | 3.5 | 4.2 |
| Indonesia | 3.2 | 2.6 | 3.0 |
| Malaysia | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.5 |
| Mexico | 4.9 | 4.1 | 3.9 |
| Poland | 2.0 | 1.7 | 1.9 |
| Romania | 4.6 | 3.4 | 2.9 |
| Saudi Arabia | 2.5 | 0.3 | 1.6 |
| South Africa | 4.6 | 4.3 | 5.0 |
| Thailand | 1.1 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Turkey | 16.3 | 17.1 | 13.8 |
| EM Aggregate (Median) | 3.8 | 3.6 | 3.5 |
EM Monetary Policy Outlook (2018–2020)
| Country | 2018 Policy Rate (%) | 2019 Policy Rate (%) | 2020 Policy Rate (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Argentina | 59.25 | 45.00 | 20.00 |
| Brazil | 6.50 | 5.75 | 6.50 |
| Chile | 2.75 | 3.25 | 4.00 |
| China | 4.35 | 4.35 | 4.35 |
| Colombia | 4.25 | 4.50 | 5.25 |
| Czech Republic | 1.75 | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| Hungary | 0.90 | 0.90 | 0.90 |
| India | 6.50 | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| Indonesia | 6.00 | 5.75 | 5.50 |
| Malaysia | 3.25 | 3.00 | 2.75 |
| Mexico | 8.25 | 7.75 | 6.75 |
| Poland | 1.50 | 1.50 | 2.00 |
| Romania | 2.50 | 2.50 | 2.50 |
| Saudi Arabia | 3.00 | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| South Africa | 6.75 | 6.50 | 6.50 |
| Thailand | 1.75 | 1.75 | 1.75 |
| Turkey | 24.00 | 20.00 | 15.00 |
| EM Aggregate | 5.25 | 4.91 | 4.67 |
Conclusion
The report highlights that EMs are expected to experience slower growth, contained inflation, and monetary easing in 2019, driven by the global economic environment and local economic conditions. While the overall outlook is more stable and resilient than in the past, differentiation among EMs remains significant, with specific challenges and policy responses varying by country. The analysis underscores the importance of local factors such as elections, fiscal policies, and structural reforms in shaping EM outcomes.
Legal and Compliance Disclaimers
- This document is non-independent research and is intended for Relevant Persons as defined by MiFID II.
- It is not investment research and should not be relied upon for investment decisions.
- The information is subject to change and not guaranteed to be accurate or complete.
- BNPP may have conflicts of interest and may engage in transactions inconsistent with the views expressed.
- The document may contain simulated performance data and is not indicative of future results.
- It is not a prospectus and does not constitute an offer to sell or purchase any financial instrument.
- The report includes important disclosures for options, ETFs, and other securities, emphasizing the risks involved and the need for professional advice.
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