巴黎银行-新兴市场-宏观策略-新兴市场贸易追踪：第一季度出口疲软预示着GDP增长疲软-20190417-8页_990kb

EM Trade Tracker Summary: Weak Q1 Exports Hint at Soft GDP Growth

Core Content

This report, published on 17 April 2019, provides an analysis of emerging market (EM) trade and economic performance, focusing on Q1 2019 export data and its implications for GDP growth. It highlights the slowdown in trade and economic activity, while also noting potential support factors for EM economies despite these challenges.

Key Messages

• EM Exports Growth Tracker: Indicates a 0.1% year-over-year contraction in Q1 2019, compared to an 8.0% expansion in Q4 2018.
• China's Impact: Although China's GDP growth rebounded, its imports declined, which is closely linked to EM exports. This suggests a shift in China's stimulus approach, moving from investments to tax cuts and public services.
• EM GDP Growth: EM GDP growth (excluding China) slowed to 0.6% quarter-over-quarter (non-annualised) in Q1, compared to 1.0% in Q4.
• Trade Uncertainty: Trade policy uncertainty remains high, affecting global trade dynamics and investment sentiment.
• Regional Perspectives:
  • Latin America (Latam): Exports decelerated sharply, with Argentina expected to benefit from favorable grain crop seasons, but Brazil's exports may be impacted by lower iron ore output.
  • Central and Eastern Europe (CEEMEA): Trade data remains weak, with potential impacts from German demand.
  • EM Asia: The region entered negative export territory in Q1, with the recovery of Chinese demand being a key factor.
  • GCC: Trade values may rise due to higher oil prices, but volumes could decline due to OPEC production cuts and geopolitical tensions.

Main Views and Insights

Economic Surprise Index

• The BNPP-EM economic surprise index shows growth stabilizing, with China being the main driver of positive surprises.
• However, the economic surprise is not enough to offset the trade slowdown, suggesting a more cautious outlook.

Supportive Factors for EM

• Despite the trade slowdown, several factors support EM economies:
  • USD Funding and Rollover Risk: Indicates a supportive environment for EM.
  • Financial Transmission Channels: Remain positive.
  • Corporate HY Impact: Suggests continued support for EM.
• The EM exports growth tracker includes early reports from key countries like Brazil, Chile, China, Indonesia, South Korea, Turkey, South Africa, Taiwan, Vietnam, Singapore, and Mexico, weighted by their correlation to EM GDP growth.

Policy and Trade Uncertainty

• High Policy Uncertainty: Remains a concern, with trade tensions between the US, EU, and China still unresolved.
• US-China Tariffs: While less acute than before, the dispute is not fully resolved.
• USMCA Approval: Still uncertain, with the agreement not yet finalized.
• India and Japan: Have joined the discussion on China's trade policies, adding to the uncertainty.
• Brexit: Continues to pose risks in Europe, reducing the likelihood of new trade agreements.

Investment Risks

• Trade uncertainty can lead to weaker investment, increasing downside risks for EM economies.
• Examples include Brazil, China, Mexico, and South Africa, which have seen reduced GDP growth forecasts.
• Mexico's Export Prospects: May be negatively impacted due to prolonged NAFTA negotiations.

Key Figures and Data

• Fig. 1: EM exports growth tracker (year-over-year, 3-month moving average).
• Fig. 2: EM real GDP growth and trade growth correlation.
• Fig. 3: Exports growth by region (year-over-year, 3-month moving average).
• Fig. 4: Policy uncertainty and trade tensions (long-term average = 100).
• Fig. 5: EM real GDP growth forecasts (26 institutions, weighted by GDP).

Important Disclosures

• The report contains research content under MiFID II, which is intended for professional clients and eligible counterparties.
• It is a marketing communication and not a prospectus, advertisement, or public offering.
• The report is subject to change and may not be updated.
• It does not constitute investment advice and should not be relied upon as an authoritative source.
• Confidentiality: The information is provided on a strictly confidential basis and may not be copied or distributed without prior written consent.
• Legal and Regulatory Information: Includes disclosures for the US, UK, France, Germany, and Belgium, outlining the legal status and responsibilities of BNPP and its affiliates.

Conclusion

The report underscores a softening trend in EM trade and GDP growth in Q1 2019, influenced by China's policy shift, global trade tensions, and uncertainty in policy environments. While the economic surprise index suggests stabilization, the overall outlook remains cautious due to the weakness in trade data and investment risks. The analysis provides a comprehensive view of EM economic performance, highlighting both challenges and potential supports.