20250630-招银国际-波司登-03998.HK-Prudent_guidance_but_we_are_still_confident_7页_1mb

Bosideng (3998 HK) Analysis Summary

Bosideng maintains a cautious FY26E guidance despite offering conservative targets, reflecting management's strategy for stability, though some investors may be disappointed due to reduced growth expectations compared to prior RMB30bn sales target or 10%+ sales growth forecasts. The bank supports the stock, maintaining a "Buy" recommendation with a lowered target price (TP) to HK$5.55, based on a 13x FY26E P/E, citing industry factors (low base, late CNY) and company-specific strengths (product design, marketing, store operations) as key growth catalysts, alongside plans for product diversification, channel expansion, and inventory optimization. Performance in FY25 was broadly inline with estimates (12% yoy sales growth, 14% yoy net profit growth), though profitability pressure due to warmer winter and lower-than-expected gross margin impacted H225 performance. Financially, the company exhibits a healthy inventory level (118 inventory days) and attractive yield (6% trailing yield), though net gearing is rising. Upside catalysts include enhancing extreme cold and high-end product lines, increasing brand modernization through collaborations, strengthening e-commerce, progressively restructuring stores, and concluding warmer winter impact.