2018年-WEF世界经济论坛_Regional_Risks_for_Doing_Business_40页_17mb

Regional Risks for Doing Business Summary

Core Content

The World Economic Forum's 2018 Regional Risks for Doing Business report provides an in-depth analysis of the risks that businesses face in different regions of the world. It is based on the Executive Opinion Survey, which collects insights from approximately 12,000 private-sector decision-makers across 130 economies. The report highlights how regional dynamics shape the risk landscape and emphasizes the importance of understanding these risks for better global risk management.

Main Views

• Regional Risks Are Diverse: While global risks like unemployment and cyber-attacks are prominent, regional risks differ significantly based on economic, political, and social conditions.
• Cyber-attacks Are a Major Concern: Cyber-attacks rank as the top risk in Europe and are a top-five risk in several other regions, including East Asia and the Pacific.
• Economic and Political Strains: The report underscores the economic and political challenges that businesses face, especially in the wake of the global financial crisis.
• Regional Importance: As global governance becomes more fragmented, regions are increasingly seen as key actors in shaping the global risk landscape.

Key Information

Global Risks (Top 10)

1. Unemployment or underemployment
2. Failure of national governance
3. Energy price shock
4. Fiscal crises
5. Cyber-attacks
6. Profound social instability
7. Failure of financial mechanism or institution
8. Failure of critical infrastructure
9. Failure of regional and global governance
10. Terrorist attacks

Regional Risk Highlights

Europe

• Top Risks: Cyber-attacks (1), asset bubbles (2), failure of national governance (3), failure of financial mechanism or institution (4), unemployment or underemployment (5), fiscal crises (6), failure of urban planning (7), interstate conflict (8), large-scale involuntary migration (9), data fraud or theft (10).
• Cyber-attacks are the most significant risk, especially in more advanced economies.
• Asset bubbles are a growing concern, particularly in Central Europe.
• Unemployment and fiscal crises are also major concerns, with notable variations across countries.
• Brexit and political fragmentation are contributing to national governance failures in several countries.

Eurasia

• Top Risks: Energy price shock (1), interstate conflict (2), fiscal crises (3), unemployment or underemployment (4), profound social instability (5), large-scale involuntary migration (6), unmanageable inflation (7), failure of financial mechanism or institution (8), natural catastrophes (9), failure of national governance (10).
• Energy price shock is the top risk, driven by the region's heavy reliance on oil and gas.
• Interstate conflict is a major concern, especially in the context of ongoing tensions between Russia and its neighbors.
• Unemployment varies significantly, with some countries like Armenia and Georgia experiencing high rates.
• Profound social instability is a growing concern, linked to corruption, inequality, and economic insecurity.

Middle East and North Africa (MENA)

• Top Risks: Energy price shock (1), unemployment or underemployment (2), terrorist attacks (3), failure of regional and global governance (4), fiscal crises (5), cyber-attacks (6), unmanageable inflation (7), water crises (8), illicit trade (9), failure of financial mechanism or institution (10).
• Energy price shock is the top risk, especially for oil-producing countries.
• Terrorist attacks and fiscal crises are also significant concerns.
• Cyber-attacks are a rising risk, particularly in more economically advanced countries like Israel, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia.
• Water crises and food crises are critical environmental and economic issues in the region.

Sub-Saharan Africa

• Top Risks: Unemployment or underemployment (1), failure of national governance (2), energy price shock (3), failure of critical infrastructure (4), fiscal crises (5), failure of financial mechanism or institution (6), failure of regional and global governance (7), water crises (8), food crises (9), unmanageable inflation (10).
• Unemployment is a major issue, with 22 out of 34 surveyed countries listing it as their top concern.
• Failure of national governance is also a significant risk, especially in countries with weak institutional frameworks.
• Energy price shock and fiscal crises are key economic risks, while failure of critical infrastructure and water crises highlight the region's vulnerability to environmental and operational disruptions.

Methodology and Context

• The report is based on the Executive Opinion Survey, which provides insights from private-sector leaders.
• It differs from the Global Risks Report in that it focuses on regional perspectives rather than a global overview.
• The survey reveals that while global risks are important, regional variations in risk perception are crucial for understanding the full scope of challenges.

Conclusion

Understanding regional risks is essential for businesses navigating the complex and interconnected global landscape. The report underscores the need for localized risk assessments and the increasing role of regions in global governance and economic stability. It also highlights the growing importance of cyber risks, economic instability, and political fragmentation in shaping the future of business environments worldwide.