2011年-WEF世界经济论坛_Global_Risks_Report_2011_60页_6mb

Summary of Global Risks 2011, Sixth Edition

Core Content

The Global Risks 2011, Sixth Edition report, published by the World Economic Forum, outlines the most pressing global risks and their interconnections. It highlights the growing complexity of global challenges, emphasizing the need for a coordinated and proactive approach to risk management. The report is based on the Global Risks Survey, which gathered insights from 580 global leaders and decision-makers, and is supported by the Risk Response Network (RRN), a new initiative aimed at fostering multistakeholder collaboration to address global risks.

Main Risks Identified

Economic Risks

• Asset price collapse
• Extreme commodity price volatility
• Extreme consumer price volatility
• Extreme energy price volatility
• Fiscal crises
• Global imbalances and currency volatility
• Infrastructure fragility
• Liquidity/credit crunch
• Regulatory failures
• Retrenchment from globalization
• Slowing Chinese economy (<6%)

Environmental Risks

• Air pollution
• Biodiversity loss
• Climate change
• Earthquakes and volcanic eruptions
• Flooding
• Ocean governance
• Storms and cyclones

Societal Risks

• Chronic diseases
• Demographic challenges
• Economic disparity
• Food security
• Infectious diseases
• Water security

Geopolitical Risks

• Corruption
• Fragile states
• Geopolitical conflict
• Global governance failures
• Illicit trade
• Organized crime
• Space security
• Terrorism
• Weapons of mass destruction

Technological Risks

• Critical information infrastructure breakdown
• Online data and information security
• T新ats师更新t篇hnologies (possibly a typo or misrendered text)

Key Risks in Focus

1. The Macroeconomic Imbalances Nexus

• Global imbalances and currency volatility, fiscal crises, and asset price collapse are interconnected.
• These risks stem from the tension between the growing wealth and influence of emerging economies and the high debt levels in advanced economies.
• Internal imbalances are caused by government policies and private sector behavior, while external imbalances arise from a mismatch between saving and investment.
• The risks lead to slow growth, unsustainable debt accumulation, and the potential for sovereign defaults and asset price collapses.

2. The Illegal Economy Nexus

• Risks include state fragility, illicit trade, organized crime, and corruption.
• A networked world, governance failures, and economic disparity create an environment where illegal activities can flourish.
• The value of illicit trade globally was estimated at US $1.3 trillion in 2009, and it continues to grow.
• These risks undermine development, weaken states, and threaten long-term stability.

3. The Water-Food-Energy Nexus

• A rapidly growing population and increasing prosperity are placing unsustainable pressure on resources.
• Demand for water, food, and energy is expected to rise by 30-50% in the next two decades.
• Short-term responses to economic disparity can undermine long-term sustainability.
• Shortages may lead to social and political instability, geopolitical conflict, and irreparable environmental damage.

Risks to Watch

Five risks were identified as particularly concerning due to high variance in perception and low confidence among survey respondents, and severe, unexpected, or underappreciated consequences according to experts:

• Cyber-security issues, including cyber theft and the possibility of all-out cyber warfare.
• Demographic challenges, which increase fiscal pressures in advanced economies and social instability in emerging economies.
• Resource security issues, causing extreme volatility and sustained increases in energy and commodity prices.
• Retrenchment from globalization, driven by populist responses to economic disparity.
• Weapons of mass destruction, especially the risk of renewed nuclear proliferation.

Cross-Cutting Global Risks

Economic Disparity

• Definition: Wealth and income disparities within and between countries threaten social and political stability and economic development.
• Interconnections: Tightly linked to corruption, demographic challenges, fragile states, global imbalances, asset price collapse, and geopolitical conflict.
• Impact: Perceived to influence chronic diseases, infectious diseases, illicit trade, migration, food insecurity, terrorism, and weapons of mass destruction.
• Concern: Rising economic disparity is seen as a major risk, with perception-based concerns even in the absence of definitive evidence.

Global Governance Failures

• Definition: Weak or inadequate global institutions, agreements, or networks, combined with competing national and political interests, hinder cooperation on global risks.
• Interconnections: Strongly linked to regulatory failures, corruption, and economic disparity.
• Failures Highlighted:
  • UN climate change negotiations
  • Uncompleted Doha Development Round
  • Lack of progress on Millennium Development Goals
  • Stalling of UN Security Council reform
  • Challenges to nuclear proliferation frameworks
• Concern: A growing sense of paralysis in responding to global challenges.
• Need for Reform: The Washington Consensus is no longer the baseline for economic development, and no alternative model has emerged.
• Challenges: Emerging economies feel underrepresented in international institutions, while established powers are reluctant to cede influence.

Key Insights and Recommendations

• The report emphasizes the need to proactively address the causes of global risks, not just their symptoms.
• It advocates for coordinated response strategies to manage trade-offs and unintended consequences arising from interconnected systems.
• A long-term approach is necessary for risks that develop over decades, such as demographic challenges and resource security issues.
• The Risk Response Network (RRN) aims to provide a platform for global decision-makers to collaborate on risk management and innovation.

Conclusion

The Global Risks 2011 report underscores the increasing interconnectedness and complexity of global risks. It calls for improved global governance, greater international cooperation, and a more resilient and inclusive global system. The RRN is positioned as a critical tool to facilitate this shift, enabling stakeholders to better understand and respond to the evolving risk landscape.