2016年-世界发展银行全球_Rapid_Damage_and_Loss_Assessment___November_9-11_and_November_28_2016_Floods_40页_3mb

Rapid Damage and Loss Assessment: November 9-11 and November 28, 2016 Floods in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines

Core Content

This report provides a rapid damage and loss assessment of the floods that occurred on November 9–11 and November 28, 2016, in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (SVG). The floods were triggered by two tropical trough systems, resulting in flash flooding and landslides that caused widespread damage to infrastructure, housing, and economic activities.

Main Points

1. Disaster Overview

• Cause: Two tropical trough systems brought heavy and sustained rainfall, leading to flash flooding and landslides.
• Impact: The floods primarily affected mainland Saint Vincent, with significant damage to transport, water, electricity, agriculture, and housing sectors.
• Fatalities: One death was reported from Bequia.
• Rainfall Intensity: November 2016 saw the second-highest monthly rainfall since 1979, with over 691.2 mm recorded at E.T. Joshua Airport.
• Geographic Vulnerability: The island's steep topography, volcanic origin, and short distances from the coast to the mountainous interior contributed to rapid runoff and flash flooding.

2. Damage and Losses

• Total Estimated Damage and Losses: US$36.3 million (EC$97.9 million).
• Sector Breakdown:
  • Transport and Public Infrastructure: 67% of total damage (US$24.3 million / EC$65.7 million).
  • Housing: 13% of total damage (US$4.6 million / EC$12.3 million), affecting 189 houses.
  • Electricity: 2% of total damage (US$1.1 million / EC$2.9 million).
  • Water & Sanitation: 0% of total damage (US$0.1 million / EC$0.3 million).
  • Agriculture: 2% of total damage (US$0.8 million / EC$2.2 million).
  • Industry & Commerce: 13% of total losses (US$4.9 million / EC$13.1 million), primarily due to business closures and reduced productivity.
  • Tourism and Education: No direct damage or losses reported, though potential impacts are noted.

3. Immediate Response

• The Government of SVG requested support from the World Bank Group for a Rapid Damage and Loss Assessment (DaLA) on November 22, 2016.
• A team of experts conducted the assessment, and the data were collected from various government agencies and departments.

4. Macroeconomic Impact

• The total estimated costs represent approximately 49.5% of the 2016 capital budget and 10.7% of the total 2016 budget.
• Potential economic consequences include increased imports, higher labor costs, and a possible worsening of the Balance of Payments (BOP).
• The impact on the economy is expected to be more pronounced as the disaster occurred during a seasonally high period for the retail industry.

5. Recovery and Reconstruction Plan

• Short-Term Actions (1 year): Focus on immediate response, emergency shelter, and infrastructure repair.
• Medium- to Long-Term Actions (1–5 years): Emphasize disaster risk reduction, improved land use planning, and institutional capacity building.
• Financing Needs: The report highlights the need for financial support to cover both immediate and long-term recovery efforts.

Key Information

• The report was prepared under the ACP-EU Natural Disaster Risk Reduction Program, with financial support from the European Union.
• The World Bank Group provided technical assistance and support for the DaLA process.
• The RDVRP (Regional Disaster Vulnerability Reduction Project) is a key initiative aimed at reducing disaster risk and improving resilience.
• The Government of SVG is committed to integrating disaster risk reduction and climate adaptation into its planning and development processes.
• The poverty distribution is geographically correlated, with the highest rates in the northern mainland and surrounding villages.
• The assessment is a rapid one, and the figures represent a low estimate of the total impact, especially in terms of losses.
• The currency conversion factor used is EC$2.70 = US$1.00.

Recommendations

• Enhance early warning systems based on rainfall observations rather than stream levels.
• Strengthen land use and physical planning to incorporate disaster risk reduction.
• Improve institutional capacity for disaster management and climate adaptation.
• Support reconstruction and recovery efforts through targeted financial and technical assistance.

Conclusion

The floods of November 2016 had a significant impact on SVG, particularly on transport, housing, and industry. The Government, in collaboration with the World Bank Group, has taken steps to assess the damage and plan for recovery, with a focus on long-term resilience and disaster risk reduction. The report underscores the need for continued investment in infrastructure, early warning systems, and climate adaptation strategies to mitigate future risks.