2025-05-22-Jefferies-格洛班特（GLOB）_模型更新——仍存在一些不确定性_但估值极具吸引力不容忽视_21页_780kb

Financial Report Summary: Globant (GLOB)

Company Overview

Globant is an IT services firm specializing in digital transformation and custom software development. It serves Global 2,000 clients, primarily across North America (approx. 70% revenue). The company has a Buy rating from Jefferies with a price target of $125, based on a 20x forward P/E applied to 2025 adjusted EPS of $6.25. Key challenges include tariff sensitivity, revenue growth uncertainty, and potential margin pressure.

Financial Highlights

• Revenue Guidance: 2025 revenue estimates range from $2,464M to $2,611M, reflecting an updated guidance of flat year-over-year growth. Adjusted EPS is revised to $6.25 for 2025, down from previous estimates, due to negative margin impact from tariffs and soft top-line.
• Valuation: Current price is $102.75, trading at a 16x forward P/E, below its 3-year average of 30x. The stock trades below its historical levels after a -28% stock correction following 1Q earnings.
• Performance Metrics: 2024 revenue reached $2,415.7M, with adj EBITDA growing 18.0%. 2025 estimates show a 2.6% revenue growth year-over-year, but adj EPS lowered due to FX, inorganic headwinds, and margin pressure.

Investment Recommendation

• Rating: Buy
• Justification: Despite near-term risks, Globant offers a viable path to double-digit organic growth. The PEG ratio of ~1.0x and attractive valuation metrics suggest potential upside, though outcomes depend on U.S. economic conditions and resolution of tariff-sensitive spending cuts.
• Price Target: $125 (includes a 22% upside from current price)
• Projection: Reiterated 12-month PT implies upside if growth recovers; if risks persist, price could decline to $70.

Key Risks and Factors

• Microeconomic Risks: U.S. economic slowdown, ongoing tariff effects, and Latin American geopolitical/political instability.
• Macro Factors: Margin compression due to headwinds, wage inflation, competition, or loss of key clients like Disney.
• Guidance Updates: Recent quarters show subdued growth expectations; 1Q25 earnings missed consensus, highlighting client pullback from tariff-sensitive segments.
• Market Context: Latin America revenue declined y/y, while other regions showed mixed results, particularly in Healthcare and TMT sectors.

Valuation Comparison

• Comparables: Globant's 16.1x forward P/E is below peer group averages, but its premium multiple reflects a premium over some IT competitors (e.g., EPAM, WNS). EV/EBITDA ratio aligns with industry peers.
• PEG: Stable at ~1.0x, indicating reasonable growth justifica on valuation.

Analyst Certification

Surinder Thind andcolleagues at Jefferies certify the views reflect their personal analysis and no compensation links exist to specific recommendations. Rating updates are tracked with historical performance showing the stock has been "Buy" since late 2022 with fluctuations reflecting market conditions.