20260211-招银国际-Robust_usage_growth_to_drive_solid_revenue_growth_outlook_7页_866kb

报告摘要

Datadog (DDOG US) Summary

Core Content

Datadog (DDOG US) has demonstrated robust revenue growth in its 4Q25 results, with total revenue reaching US$953.2 million, up 29.2% YoY. This outperformed both the analyst's forecast and Bloomberg's consensus, driven by accelerated growth from non-AI customers (from 20% YoY in 3Q25 to 23% YoY in 4Q25) and strong demand from AI-native customers. Non-GAAP net income after tax adjustment was US$217.4 million, up 22.5% YoY, also exceeding expectations.

For the full year of 2025, total revenue grew 27.7% YoY to US$3.4 billion, with non-GAAP OPM reaching 22.4%. Management indicated that the growth acceleration in non-AI customers continued into January 2026, and provided a 1Q26E guidance of 25–26% YoY revenue growth. For the full year of 2026, they guided 18–20% YoY revenue growth and 20–22% non-GAAP OPM, which is a conservative approach compared to 2025's performance.

Key Financial Highlights

Total Revenue (4Q25): US$953.2 million (+29.2% YoY)
Non-GAAP Net Income (4Q25): US$217.4 million (+22.5% YoY)
2025 Revenue: US$3.4 billion (+27.7% YoY)
2025 Non-GAAP OPM: 22.4%
1Q26E Revenue Guidance: US$951–961 million (25–26% YoY growth)
2026E Revenue Guidance: US$4.06–4.10 billion (18–20% YoY growth)
2026E Non-GAAP OPM Guidance: 20–22%
Target Price (2026E): US$196.90 (down from US$203.70)
Current Price: US$114.01
Up/Downside: 72.7%

Customer Growth and Trends

Total Customers (4Q25): 32,700 (+9% YoY)
Large Customers (ARR ≥ $1 million): 603 (+31% YoY)
ARR from $100k+ customers: 90% of total ARR
Customers using more than 2/4/6/8/10 products: 84/55/33/18/9% respectively, up by 1/5/7/6/4 percentage points YoY
Median ARR for Fortune 500 customers: Less than $500,000, indicating significant room for growth

Operating Metrics

RPO (Revenue Per Order): US$3.46 billion (+52% YoY)
Net Dollar-Based Retention Rate: ~120%, flat QoQ, up from high-110% in 4Q24
Non-GAAP GPM (Gross Margin): 81.3% (down 0.9ppts YoY, up 0.2ppts QoY)
Non-GAAP OPM (Operating Margin): 24.1% (up 0.1ppt YoY, better than consensus and forecast)
Non-GAAP NPM (Net Margin): 22.8% (up 0.6ppt YoY)

Revenue Growth Trajectory

2023A Revenue: US$2,128 million
2024A Revenue: US$2,684 million (+26.1% YoY)
2025A Revenue: US$3,427 million (+27.7% YoY)
2026E Revenue: US$4,098 million (+19.6% YoY)
2027E Revenue: US$4,925 million (+20.2% YoY)
2028E Revenue: US$5,876 million (+19.3% YoY)

Analyst Ratings and Forecast

CMBIG Rating: BUY
Target Price: US$196.90
CMBI Forecast vs Bloomberg Consensus:
- Revenue: CMBI forecasts are slightly lower than Bloomberg
- Non-GAAP OPM: CMBI forecasts are slightly lower than Bloomberg
- Non-GAAP NPM: CMBI forecasts are slightly lower than Bloomberg

Valuation Metrics

EV/Sales (2026E): 16.3x
Target EV (2026E): US$66.8 billion
Net Cash (2026E): US$4.53 billion
Target Equity Valuation (2026E): US$71.3 billion
Valuation per Share (2026E): US$196.90
P/E (2026E): 423.0
P/B (2026E): 8.9

Analyst Disclosures

The analyst certifies that the views expressed reflect their personal views.
No part of the analyst's compensation is related to the views in the report.
The analyst has not traded in the stock covered in the report within 30 days prior to the report's release.
The analyst will not trade in the stock covered in the report for 3 business days after the report's release.
The analyst has no financial interest in the companies covered in the report.

CMBIG Ratings

BUY: Stock with potential return of over 15% over next 12 months
HOLD: Stock with potential return of +15% to -10% over next 12 months
SELL: Stock with potential loss of over 10% over next 12 months
NOT RATED: Stock is not rated by CMBIGM
OUTPERFORM: Industry expected to outperform the relevant broad market benchmark
MARKET-PERFORM: Industry expected to perform in-line with the relevant broad market benchmark
UNDERPERFORM: Industry expected to underperform the relevant broad market benchmark

Disclaimer

This report is not investment advice and is not tailored to individual investors.
The information is based on publicly available data and is not guaranteed.
Past performance is not indicative of future performance.
CMBIGM is not a registered broker-dealer in the United States.
The report is intended for distribution to "major US institutional investors" only.
The report may not be reproduced, reprinted, sold, or published without prior written consent.

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