20260211-招银国际-Robust_usage_growth_to_drive_solid_revenue_growth_outlook_7页_866kb

> **来源：[研报客](https://pc.yanbaoke.cn)** # Datadog (DDOG US) # Robust usage growth to drive solid revenue growth outlook Datadog (DDOG US) released (10 Feb HKT) its 4Q25 results: total revenue was US$953.2mn, up \(29.2\%$ YoY (4Q24: $25.1\%$; 3Q25: $28.4\%$), $4\%$ better than both our forecast and Bloomberg consensus, driven by acceleration in revenue growth from non-AI customers (from $20\%$ YoY in 3Q25 to $23\%$ YoY in 4Q25), and strong demand from AI native customers. During the period, non-GAAP net income after tax adjustment was US\)217.4mn, up $22.5\%$ YoY, and was $6/7\%$ better than our forecast/consensus, driven by the beat in revenue and better-than-expected unleashing of operating leverage. For 2025, total revenue grew $27.7\%$ YoY to US\)3.4bn, and non-GAAP OPM reached $22.4\%$. Management noted that the acceleration in revenue growth for non-AI customers has continued in Jan 2026, and guided for $25 - 26\%$ YoY growth for total revenue in 1Q26E (1Q25: $25\%$). Taking a conservative approach to full-year guidance, particularly for the AI-native customer cohort, management guided $18 - 20\%$ YoY revenue growth and $20 - 22\%$ non-GAAP OPM for 2026E. We lower our 2026–2027E revenue forecasts by $2 - 4\%$ to bring estimates in line with guidance, while remaining confident in DDOG's upside potential for revenue growth. We fine-tuned our TP to US\)196.9 (from US$203.7), based on 16.3x 2026E EV/sales (previously 16.6x), in line with the two-year average plus one standard deviation. Maintain BUY. Robust cross-sell and up-sell trends sustained, with further upside potential ahead. By the end of 4Q25, Datadog's platform had over 32,700 customers, up $9\%$ YoY. The number of large customers with an ARR of US$1mn/$100k+ reached 603/4,310 during the same period, up $31/19\%$ YoY. Percentage of ARR comprised by US\)100k+ customers accounted for $90\%$ of the company's total ARR in 4Q25 (4Q24: $88\%$). As of 4Q25, c. 84/55/33/18/9% of customers used more than 2/4/6/8/10 products of the company, up by 1/5/7/6/4ppts YoY respectively. Management highlighted that median of DDOG ARR for Fortune 500 customers was still less than half a million dollars, which in our view indicates plenty of room for future business development. On key operating metrics: 1) RPO was US\)3.46bn, up $52\%$ YoY (3Q25: $53\%$; 4Q24: $24\%$) and current RPO was up about-40s YoY (3Q25: low-50s); 2) net dollar-based retention rate was about $120\%$ in 4Q25, flat QoQ and up from high-110% in 4Q24. ■ Strong revenue growth trajectory was seen in both AI and non-AI customers. Management highlighted that DDOG has accumulated more than 650 AI-native companies in its customer base in 4Q25 (3Q25: 500), among which 19 are spending more than US$1mn annually (3Q25: 15), and currently 14 out of Top 20 AI native companies are DDOG's customers. Revenue excluding AI-native customer group was up $23\%$ YoY in 3Q25, accelerating from $18\% / 20\%$ YoY in 2Q25/3Q25, and management noted that the acceleration trend continued in Jan 2026. Guided to continue investing for future growth while maintaining good operating efficiency. For 4Q25, non-GAAP GPM came in at $81.4\%$ , down 0.3ppts YoY but up 0.2ppts QoQ. Overall non-GAAP OPM came in at $24.1\%$ in 4Q25 (4Q24: $24.3\%$ ), 0.1ppt better than both consensus and our forecast. Management guided to continue investing in enhancing R&D capabilities to enhance long-term growth prospects, while still guided for $20 - 22\%$ non-GAAP OPM for 2026E (2025: $22.4\%$ ). # BUY (Maintain) Target Price US$196.90 (Previous TP US$203.70) Up/Downside 72.7% Current Price US$114.01 # China Internet Saiyi HE, CFA (852) 3916 1739 hesaiyi@cmbi.com.hk Ye TAO, CFA (852) 3850 5226 franktao@cmbi.com.hk Wentao LU, CFA luwentao@cmbi.com.hk Stock Data Mkt Cap (US$ mn) 42,407.6 Avg 3 mths t/o (US$ mn) 655.5 52w High/Low (US$) 199.72/87.00 Total Issued Shares (mn) 372.0 Source:FactSet Shareholding Structure Vanguard Group Inc 12.9% Blackrock Inc. 8.2% Source: Nasdaq Share Performance 12-mth Price Performance Absolute Relative 1-mth -9.1% -7.5% 3-mth -42.9% -42.2% 6-mth -12.9% -19.6% Source:FactSet Source:FactSet Earnings Summary (YE 31 Dec) FY24A FY25A FY26E FY27E FY28E Revenue (US$ mn) 2,684 3,427 4,098 4,925 5,876 YoY growth (%) 26.1 27.7 19.6 20.2 19.3 Net profit (US$ mn) 183.7 107.7 97.0 168.8 262.6 Adjusted net profit (US$ mn) 653.8 746.6 779.2 992.7 1,232.5 YoY growth (%) 40.9 14.2 4.4 27.4 24.2 EPS (Adjusted) (US$) 1.83 2.06 2.09 2.57 3.06 Consensus EPS (US$) na 2.02 2.41 2.95 0.46 Source: Company data, Bloomberg, CMBIG estimates Management guided for 1Q26E: 1) revenue of US$951-961mn, representing \(25 - 26\%$ growth YoY, and the mid-point of guidance was $2\%$ ahead of consensus; and 2) non-GAAP net income per share of US\)0.49-0.51 (consensus: US$0.54). For 2026, management is looking for: 1) revenue of US\)4.06bn-4.10bn, representing YoY growth of c.18-20% (2025: $28\%$ YoY); 2) non-GAAP OP of US\)840mn-880mn; and 3) net income per share of US$2.08-2.16. Figure 1: DDOG: quarterly results trend (USDmn) 1Q24 2Q24 3Q24 4Q24 1Q25 2Q25 3Q25 4Q25 4Q25 4Q25E Consensus Diff% Total revenue 611.3 645.3 690.0 737.7 761.6 826.8 885.7 953.2 917.2 3.9% YoY Growth 26.9% 26.7% 26.0% 25.1% 24.6% 28.1% 28.4% 29.2% Gross profit 501.2 521.8 552.3 593.5 603.9 660.8 709.2 766.3 745.8 2.8% R&D expenses 270.0 274.6 291.8 316.3 341.1 387.5 402.0 417.9 S&M expenses 173.9 187.0 187.8 207.9 214.3 239.0 238.7 264.4 G&A expenses 45.3 47.6 52.4 59.9 61.0 69.8 74.3 74.6 Operating profit 12.0 12.6 20.3 9.4 (12.4) (35.5) (5.8) 9.4 15.3 -38.9% Net profit 42.6 43.8 51.7 45.6 24.6 2.6 33.9 46.6 40.6 14.8% Non-GAAP OP 164.5 157.5 173.0 179.2 166.5 164.1 207.4 230.1 220.7 4.3% Non-GAAP NP after tax adjustment 157.6 153.0 165.7 177.5 167.9 163.8 197.4 217.4 203.5 6.9% YoY Growth 6.5% 7.1% 19.1% 22.5% Margins (%) GPM 82.0% 80.9% 80.0% 80.5% 79.3% 79.9% 80.1% 80.4% 81.3% (0.9)ppt R&D expenses ratio 41.4% 41.8% 42.3% 42.9% 44.8% 46.9% 45.4% 43.8% 43.4% 0.4ppt S&M expenses ratio 26.2% 26.9% 27.2% 28.2% 28.1% 28.9% 27.0% 27.7% 27.4% 0.3ppt G&A expenses ratio 7.2% 7.0% 7.6% 8.1% 8.0% 8.4% 8.4% 7.8% 8.0% (0.2)ppt OPM 2.0% 2.0% 2.9% 1.3% -1.6% -4.3% -0.7% 1.0% 1.7% (0.7)ppt NPM 7.0% 6.8% 7.5% 6.2% 3.2% 0.3% 3.8% 4.9% 4.4% 0.5ppt Non-GAAP OPM 26.9% 24.4% 25.1% 24.3% 21.9% 19.8% 23.4% 24.1% 24.1% 0.1ppt Non-GAAP NPM 25.8% 23.7% 24.0% 24.1% 22.0% 19.8% 22.3% 22.8% 22.2% 0.6ppt Source: Bloomberg, CMBIGM Figure 2: DDOG: changes in CMBI forecast USD mn Current Previous Change (%) 2026E 2027E 2028E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2026E 2027E 2028E Revenue 4,098.2 4,925.0 5,875.5 4,187 5,133 - -2.1% -4.0% - Gross profit 3,274.9 3,960.3 4,754.0 3,368 4,155 - -2.8% -4.7% - Non-GAAP OP 879.1 1,117.6 1,406.4 980 1,266 - -10.3% -11.7% - Non-GAAP NP 779.2 992.7 1,232.5 900 1,143 - -13.4% -13.1% - GPM 79.9% 80.4% 80.9% 80.4% 80.9% - (0.5)ppt (0.5)ppt - Non-GAAP OPM 21.5% 22.7% 23.9% 23.4% 24.7% - (2.0)ppt (2.0)ppt - Non-GAAP NPM 19.0% 20.2% 21.0% 21.5% 22.3% - (2.5)ppt (2.1)ppt - Source: CMBIGM estimates Figure 3: DDOG: CMBI forecast vs Bloomberg consensus Current Consensus Difference (%) USD mn 2026E 2027E 2028E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2026E 2027E 2028E Revenue 4,098.2 4,925.0 5,875.5 4,107 4,949 5,925.6 -0.2% -0.5% -0.8% Gross profit 3,274.9 3,960.3 4,754.0 3,333 4,019 4,830.0 -1.8% -1.5% -1.6% Non-GAAP OP 879.1 1,117.6 1,406.4 956 1,203 1,508.4 -8.1% -7.1% -6.8% Non-GAAP NP 779.2 992.7 1,232.5 890 1,109 1,350.3 -12.4% -10.5% -8.7% GPM 79.9% 80.4% 80.9% 81.2% 81.2% 81.5% (1.3)ppt (0.8)ppt (0.6)ppt Non-GAAP OPM 21.5% 22.7% 23.9% 23.3% 24.3% 25.5% (1.8)ppt (1.6)ppt (1.5)ppt Non-GAAP NPM 19.0% 20.2% 21.0% 21.7% 22.4% 22.8% (2.7)ppt (2.2)ppt (1.8)ppt Source: CMBIGM estimates Figure 4: Datadog: target valuation EV/Sales Valuation 2026E Revenue (US$mn) 4,098 Target 2026E EV/Sales 16.3 Target EV (US$mn) 66,800 Net cash (US$mn) 4,534 Target equity valuation (US$mn) 71,334 Total shares outstanding (Diluted; mn) 362.3 Valuation per share (US$) 196.9 Source: Bloomberg, CMBIGM estimates Figure 5: Datadog: one-year forward EV/sales valuation band over the past 2 years Source: Bloomberg, CMBIGM estimates Financial Summary INCOME STATEMENT 2023A 2024A 2025A 2026E 2027E 2028E YE 31 Dec (US$ mn) Revenue 2,128 2,684 3,427 4,098 4,925 5,876 Cost of goods sold 410 516 687 823 965 1,122 Gross profit 1,718 2,169 2,740 3,275 3,960 4,754 Operating expenses 1,752 2,114 2,785 3,280 3,905 4,615 Selling expense 609 757 956 1,143 1,359 1,604 Admin expense 180 205 280 328 382 442 R&D expense 962 1,153 1,548 1,808 2,163 2,569 Operating profit (33) 54 (44) (5) 56 139 Interest income 100 157 182 146 166 186 Interest expense (6) (7) (11) (11) (11) (11) Pre-tax profit 60 204 127 130 210 314 Income tax (12) (20) (19) (33) (42) (52) After tax profit 49 184 108 97 169 263 Net profit 49 184 108 97 169 263 Adjusted net profit 464 654 747 779 993 1,232 BALANCE SHEET 2023A 2024A 2025A 2026E 2027E 2028E YE 31 Dec (US$ mn) Current assets 3,178 4,911 5,382 6,472 7,839 9,500 Cash & equivalents 2,583 4,189 4,475 5,557 6,764 8,246 Account receivables 509 599 741 753 894 1,055 Prepayment 86 123 166 162 181 199 Non-current assets 758 874 1,262 1,318 1,424 1,544 PP&E 172 227 338 414 505 610 Right-of-use assets 127 173 215 215 215 215 Intangibles 10 4 15 15 15 15 Goodwill 353 360 531 531 531 531 Other non-current assets 97 111 163 144 159 173 Total assets 3,936 5,785 6,644 7,791 9,263 11,044 Current liabilities 1,003 1,863 1,591 1,762 1,943 2,128 Account payables 88 108 149 116 138 163 Other current liabilities 128 761 210 210 210 210 Lease liabilities 22 32 39 39 39 39 Contract liabilities 766 962 1,194 1,397 1,557 1,716 Non-current liabilities 908 1,208 1,320 1,316 1,375 1,442 Long-term borrowings 742 979 983 983 983 983 Deferred income 21 23 69 29 32 35 Other non-current liabilities 144 206 268 304 360 424 Total liabilities 1,911 3,071 2,912 3,078 3,319 3,570 Capital surplus 2,181 2,689 3,579 4,463 5,525 6,792 Retained earnings (154) 30 138 235 404 666 Other reserves (2) (5) 15 15 15 15 Total shareholders equity 2,025 2,714 3,732 4,713 5,944 7,474 Total equity and liabilities 3,936 5,785 6,644 7,791 9,263 11,044 CASH FLOW 2023A 2024A 2025A 2026E 2027E 2028E YE 31 Dec (US$ mn) Operating Profit before taxation 49 184 108 97 169 263 Depreciation & amortization 44 55 56 67 82 100 Change in working capital 45 13 72 178 66 58 Others 522 619 815 884 1,062 1,267 Net cash from operations 660 871 1,050 1,226 1,379 1,688 Investing Capital expenditure (62) (96) (135) (143) (172) (206) Acquisition of subsidiaries/ investments (12) (7) (116) 0 0 0 Net proceeds from disposal of short-term investments (656) (634) (1,081) 0 0 0 Net cash from investing (731) (737) (1,333) (143) (172) (206) Financing Proceeds from share issues 58 51 63 0 0 0 Others 0 736 (636) 0 0 0 Net cash from financing 58 787 (572) 0 0 0 Net change in cash Cash at the beginning of the year 342 330 1,247 403 1,485 2,692 Exchange difference 1 (4) 11 0 0 0 Cash at the end of the year 330 1,247 403 1,485 2,692 4,174 GROWTH 2023A 2024A 2025A 2026E 2027E 2028E YE 31 Dec Revenue 27.1% 26.1% 27.7% 19.6% 20.2% 19.3% Gross profit 29.4% 26.2% 26.3% 19.5% 20.9% 20.0% Operating profit na na na na na 151.0% Net profit na 278.3% (41.4%) (10.0%) 74.1% 55.6% Adj. net profit 67.7% 40.9% 14.2% 4.4% 27.4% 24.2% PROFITABILITY 2023A 2024A 2025A 2026E 2027E 2028E YE 31 Dec Gross profit margin 80.7% 80.8% 80.0% 79.9% 80.4% 80.9% Operating margin (1.6%) 2.0% (1.3%) (0.1%) 1.1% 2.4% Adj. net profit margin 21.8% 24.4% 21.8% 19.0% 20.2% 21.0% Return on equity (ROE) 2.8% 7.8% 3.3% 2.3% 3.2% 3.9% GEARING/LIQUIDITY/ACTIVITIES 2023A 2024A 2025A 2026E 2027E 2028E YE 31 Dec Net debt to equity (x) (0.9) (1.2) (0.9) (1.0) (1.0) (1.0) Current ratio (x) 3.2 2.6 3.4 3.7 4.0 4.5 Receivable turnover days 77.9 75.3 71.4 66.5 61.0 65.5 Payable turnover days 49.5 69.2 68.1 58.7 48.0 52.9 VALUATION 2023A 2024A 2025A 2026E 2027E 2028E YE 31 Dec P/E 760.5 208.6 367.5 423.0 252.8 169.1 P/E (diluted) 789.7 219.3 384.6 437.4 261.3 174.8 P/B 19.7 15.0 11.1 8.9 7.1 5.9 Source: Company data, CMBIGM estimates. 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